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9 Nature's Way, a chain of stores sellinghealth food and other health-related products, is opening its next franchise inthe town of Plainsville. The store should prove to be very successful: 1Nature's Way franchises tend to be most profitable in areas where residentslead healthy lives, and clearly Plainsville is such an area. 2 Plainsville merchants report that salesof running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. 3 The localhealth club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobicsclasses are always full. 4 Finally, Plainsville's schoolchildren represent anew generation of potential customers:these schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness-for-life program,which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age.
Write a response in which you examine thestated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure toexplain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implicationsare for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
提纲
1 论据2的说法有以下几个假设
一假设lcoal merchants 的report 真实客观
二假设没有其他的原因使跑鞋和运动衣服的销量上升。比如，一项全国性的体育赛事即将举办引发了人们购买跑鞋和运动服的热情
三假设 销量的al l timehigh 是一种显著的上升。假如之前的销量一直很低，比如一年只销售100多件，但是今年销售了300多件，但是总数仍然比较小，不足以信
2 论据3说各种办爆满。
一假设这些班的人数都很多。万一这些班只是小班或者VIP，那就不可以说明问题
二假设参加这些班的人不是特点的人群，如肥胖者。如果他们仅仅是急于减肥的人，那这些数据就不可以说明问题了。
3 论据4 这些孩子是潜在的顾客
一假设这些孩子在总人口中站较大比例
二假设参加这个项目会对这个产品有需求
三假设这些孩子对这个产品的需求不会随着他们年龄的增长而改变
In this argument, the arguer claims that anew franchise of Nature’s way will be successful in the town of Plainsville. Tosupport this claim, the arguer cites the report of local merchants which showsthat sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. Inaddition, the arguer assumes that more members of the local health club as wellas the introduction of fitness-for-life program for schoolchildren imply agreat amount of customers for Nature’s way. This argument is flawed since it isrife with holes and assumptions.
In the first place, the author cites the localmerchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are atall-time highs. It is not known, however, whether this report is objective ornot. Moreover, is there any other reasons which could cause the rise of thesales of running shoes and exercise clothing? For example, the upcomingnational sports game encourages people to buy running shoes and exerciseclothings. And we don’t know the exactnumber of the sales of running shoes and exercise clothings. If the sales areonly around one hundred in the past but three hundred this year, it’s true thatthe sales are at all-time high. But the number is still so small to be convincing.Unless the report is fully representative, reliable and valid, it couldn’t beused to effectively back up the authors’ argument.
In the second place, the arguer implies thatNature’s way will have large numbers of customers since the local health clubhas more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes arealways full. What if most of those participants are obese persons who wants tolose weight in those clubs? If so, then this evidence is unconvincing that manylocal people like to participate exercise. And the author doesn’t imply the numberand size of training classes which is a quite important factor to take intoconsiderations. For example, if there is only three training classes in totaland each only corporates ten people, even if there are always full, they onlyinclude few people.
Moreover, the fact that a certain fitnessprogram is mandatory for Plainesville’s schoolchildren accomplishes nothingtoward bolstering the conclusion that those schoolchildren are potential customersof Nature’s way. There is no concrete connection between children taking partin this program and the necessity to buy the products of Nature’s way. Even ifthere is such correlation, it does not necessarily prove that the former causesthe latter. The author needs to show that the schoolchildren represent a largepercent of the total local population and their need for the products fromNature’s way will not decline as they grow up.
To sum up, the author fails to establish astrong link between the high sales of running shoes and exercise clothings ormore members in the local health club or the introduction of the program andthe necessary need for the products in Nature’s way. In order to prove theprediction, the arguer needs to show more evidence, such as conducting a thoroughresearch on how many people are willing to buy the Nature’s way products, ect. |
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发表于 2012-5-15 17:38:09
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