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64. Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archaeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali, we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues. This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could be used only for life-size sculptures. It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found. In light of this discovery, collectors predict that the life-size sculptures will decrease in value while the miniatures increase in value.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
Outline:
Molds cannot be used abstract? Tools have not found? Predict?
ARGUMENT:
In this argument, collectors predict that the life-size sculptures will decrease in value while the miniatures increase in value. To support their prediction, collectors points out that archaeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali, and that few ancient Kaliese sculpting tools have been found. And basing on these facts, collectors make many conclusions and make the predictions. While the prediction is plausible at first glance, close scrutiny of the argument the collectors make is unconvincing at many regards, and there are several question that needs to be answered.
To begin with, the author refers that only life-size clay statues of human figures, not miniatures use modes of actual bodies by ancient artist. However, a question that we may ask is whether or not miniatures can use such modes of actual bodies. Perhaps ancient artists sculpted such miniatures just base on the actual bodies, which artist used to inspire them to create miniatures, and acquired much information from the actual bodies in order to make their creations visual. In that case, the modes of actual bodies can be used to create life-size sculptures as well as miniatures., which weaken the author's argument. Only if the author make me convince that this or other possible scenarios are unlikely, could it be used to back the collectors' prediction.
Additionally, the author assumes that few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have not been found means that creating life-size sculpture need not Kalinese sculpting tools. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that it is necessarily the case, and the author does not supply any evidence to conform this assumption. That is, another question are still on the way: not been found are equal to not exist? Obviously not. The author bases on the limited evidence to conclude a unfounded conclusion. It may turn out to be the case, for example, that these sculpting tools will be found in a time. Unless archaeologists find some reliable clues to prove the sculpting tools have not existed, can the conclusion make sense.
Furthermore, even if the deduction and inference made in the argument above is true, the author still fails to perform a feasibility analysis of the decreasing of life-size sculpture in value and the increasing of miniature in value. We may wonder, what determines to the value of a cultural relic? While the author the situation the author refers can make the argument reliable, yet the author never offer some details about the standard of the judgement of a kind of cultural relic. The common sense we have may be that the less in quantity, the higher in value. It is likely that the number of life-size sculptures is very small, while the miniature is copious. In that case, people will still chase to collect the rare life-size sculpture rather than the great number of miniature. Without accounting for and ruling out the standard of the judgement of sculpture, it is hard to accept the collectors' prediction.
Collecting the higher value cultural relic may the hobby collectors raise. However, the prediction the collectors make is invalid and misleading, basing on my above analysis. And careful analysis of all the respects I have presented is the best first step to making a correct prediction. |
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发表于 2012-5-21 20:37:46
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