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25,The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe."A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment."
The application reports that it is clear that the C-note would be a temendously profitable enterprise. And to support this recommendation the applicant point out that the nearest club is 65 miles away. He also cites other evidences to tell us jazz is very popular in Monroe. However, close scrutiny of each of these facts reveals that none of them lend credible support to the argument. Begain with, the fact of the nearest club is 65 miles away does not necessarily indicate that the C-note(C) would have the local market all to itself. Maybe the jazz club that is 65 miles away is so famous that a large number of jazz fans want to have a fun time in the club although they have to drive a long distance. Or perhaps residents of Monroe are not interested in C-note. Although the club is near their home, they choose not to enjoy themselves in the C-note. Secondly, even if C-note would have the local market all to itself, the argumenter cites further that several facts to tell us jazz is extremely popular in Monroe. Careful examnition of this supporting evidence, however, reaveals that it lends little credible support to the claim. First, although over 100,000 people attend Monroe's jazz fesitival , the author do not give us the exact number of the overall residents in Monroe. Maybe 100,000 people is just a little portion of all the residents in the city. Second, although there are several well-known jazz musicians living in Monroe, it is probablely not for the culture of jazz. They live here just because of the beautiful environment or convenient traffic condition. Third, the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is "Jazz Nightly", perhaps there are only a few funny radio programs and other programs is so dull that they can not attract the public's attention. In short, without ruling out other possible reasons the author can not convince me on the basis of them that Monroe residents are interested in jazz, let alone about C-note will make money. The last but not the least, even if jazz is extremely popular in Monroe, a nationwide study does not indicate that jazz fans of Monroe spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. Maybe the average income of residents in Monroe is lower than that of nationwide, fans can not spend nearly $1,000 on jazz entertainment. In sum, the application relies on certain doutful assumptions that render in unconvincing as it stands. It is not clear that the C-Note cannot heip but make money. To bolster the recommendation the applicant must provide clear evidence that the total number of residents in Monroe and more details about theradio programs, and considering the difference of jazz fans between Monroe and nation. |
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