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125.The following appeared as part of the business plan of the Capital Idea investment firm. “Across town in the Park Hill district, the Thespian Theater, Pizzazz Pizza, and the Niblick Golf Club have all had business increases within the past two years. Capital Idea should therefore invest in the Roxy Playhouse, the Slice-o’-Pizza, and the Divot Golf Club, three new businesses in the Irongate district. As a condition, we should require them to participate in a special program: Any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. By motivating customers to patronize all three, we will thus contribute to the profitability of each and maximize our return.”
In this argument, the author concludes that to succeed in the business in the Irongate district, one should invest in the playhouse, pizza restaurant and Gulf Club, what’s more he should also participate in a special program to attract more people to consume in all the three places. To support this argument, the author cites the evidence that in the Park Hill district, the three similar businesses all experienced an increase during the past two year. However, this argument is problematic for the following reasons.
To begin with, the author commits a fallacious analogy. It is highly doubtful that the strategies drawn from the Park Hill district are applicable to Irongate district. In the argument, the author fails to point out the difference and similarity between the two districts. Some big difference such as average age of population, consuming preference and wealth condition will lead a rather different consequence between these two districts. Without accounting for these possible differences, the author concludes too hastily that the strategies will succeed in Irongate district.
Furthermore, the author fails to prove that the special program will succeed. A special suggestion of author is that any customer who patronizes two of the businesses will receive a substantial discount at the third. But the author unfairly assumes that the customer is interested in all the three businesses. If some customers only want engage in two of them, the discount program will fails to have positive effects.
Last but not least, the author is wrong in the assumption that the success in the past 2 years will continue. Even if the two districts are rather similar and all the customers are interested in the three businesses, whether the Irongate district will succeed is not clear. No evidence is offered in the argument that the success in the past 2 years will continue. For instance, some changes in the economic conditions and consuming habits will have a big influence to the results of taking such measures.
To sum up, the argument lacks credibility to convince me that investing in the playhouse, pizza restaurant and Gulf Club in the Irongate district and participating in the special discount program will contribute to a business success and a big profitability. To strengthen the argument, the arguer should provide more evidence about the similarities and the differences between these two districts. To better evaluate the argument, we need more concrete information about whether the economic environment during the last two years will last.
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