124. The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Carlo’s Clothing to the staff.
“Since Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. While the Disc Depot’s owners have apparently become wealthy enough to retire, profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years. In order to boost our sales and profits, we should therefore switch from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot.”
In this argument, the owner of Carlo’s Clothing asserts that by switching from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot, its sales and profits will boost. To substantiate this conclusion, the author bolsters his conclusion by evidence that Disc Depot, the music store on the next block, began a new radio advertising campaign last year, and its business has grown dramatically, as evidenced by the large increase in foot traffic into the store. Moreover, it is claimed that profits at Carlo’s Clothing have remained stagnant for the past three years, while the Disc Depot’s owners enjoying the wealth obtained from their good business.
At first glance, the author's argument appears to be somewhat convincing, but close scrutiny reveals that the line of reasoning employed is invalid and hence the conclusion is probably misleading due to several critical logic flaws. In short, the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains, and lack of credibility in reasoning causes the conclusion to be problematic.
In the first place, according to the large increase in foot traffic into the store, the owner of Carlo’s Clothing claims that Disc Depot's business has grown dramatically. However, in many cases large increase in foot traffic into the store can not show that the business has grown dramatically. For example, the people crowded in the store are probably doing window-shopping, which will not lead to the business growth of the shop.
In the second place, Carlo’s Clothing and Disc Depot are in different industries. In his argument, the owner of Carlo’s Clothing fails to approve that the similarity of the two companies outweighs the difference between them. The sales and profits of Carlo’s Clothing will be affected by the season, the local custom, the weather, and so forth, which will probably not a problem for Disc Depot.
In the third place, radio advertising is not the direct cause of boosting sales and profits.
To sum up, the owner of Carlo’s Clothing fails to provide adequate justification for this argument. The evidence cited is not only vague but also incomplete. The logic reasoning is questionable with several mistakes. The absence of essential information on reasoning results in unsound conclusion. To strengthen the argument, the owners would have to provide additional evidence to demonstrate that switching from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements will boost their sales and profits. Also, further detailed information regarding the similarity between the disc industry and the clothing industry must be presented to show that the similarity of Carlo’s Clothing and Disc Depot outweighs the difference of them. In this way we could establish the conclusion that by switching from newspaper advertising to frequent radio advertisements like those for Disc Depot, its sales and profits will boost.
该文章30分写完,是俺的第一篇文章,不知道俺现在是什么水平。 俺已经做好心理准备了,什么分数都能接受~~~ 请您批评指正,俺一定虚心接受!
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-2-20 0:03:12编辑过] |