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104. The following appeared as part of a memorandum from the loan department of the Frostbite National Bank. “We should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for the Kool Kone chain of ice cream parlors. Frostbite is known for its cold winters, and cold weather can mean slow ice cream sales. For example, even though Frostbite is a town of 10,000 people, it has only one ice cream spot — the Frigid Cow. Despite the lack of competition, the Frigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter.” Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
Citing facts drawn from that Frostbite is known for its cold winters, the author reaches the conclusion that it should not approve the business loan application of the local group that wants to open a franchise outlet for ice cream chains. To substantiate the conclusion, the author points out that the cold weather will delay the sales of ice cream. To further bolster the conclusion by evidence that Frostbite has only one ice cream spot. Moreover, it is claimed that the Frigid Cow's net revenues fell last year in spite of no competition. At first glance, the author's argument appears to be somewhat convincing, close scrutiny, reveals that the line of reasoning employed is invalid and hence the conclusion is probably misleading to critical flaws, which cause the conclusion to be problematic. In the first place, the author falsely depends on the assumption that the cold weather is the main cause of the slow ice cream sales. However, the assumption is questionable since it overlooks a number of other factors that might contributed to the worse sales. No detailed evidence stated to support the argument. It is equally possible that the taste of the ice cream is rather bad or that the service quality can not meet the customers' need and so forth. Hence, the argument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibilities. In the second place, based on the fact that the Frostbite has only one ice cream with a population of 10,000, the author simply considers that it was an evidence to support the main cause. However, it is not reliable because it is clear that it can not represent anything. Probably, the citizens here reside in a highly density location, and it is more convenient for them to purchase commodities from centrally stores of various function. Unless it can be proved that the 10000 population but with only one ice cream spot can attribute to the conclusion, or it is no ground for concluding that the soly ice cream but with low sales could be a strong support. In the third place, the author's conclusion that the Frigid Cow’s net revenues fell by 10 percent last winter without no competition can be attributable to the conclusion that it is not suitable to establish the ice cream spot in such a cold location. The author fails to rule out other factors for determining the profits and revenues. Lacking better evidence that the mal-management and poor quality of ice cream made might necessarily the cause, it is entirely possible that the slow sales of ice cream here was caused by the factors discussed above. As it stands, the author's argument is not compelling because he fails to provide adequate justification for this argument. The claim that the slow sale of ice cream was due to the cold weather was a mistake ill-founded, since it is based on both poor and limited information presented in the argument. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to offer additional evidence to demonstrate that the cold weather really makes the Frostibe unqualified to establish new ice cream spot. Also, further detailed information regarding the economic and managerial conditions of Frigid Cow must be presented to show in or der to better evaluate the conclusion. | 
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发表于 2008-1-6 10:30:00
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