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The following appeared in a memorandum from the development director of the Largo Piano Company. “The Largo Piano Company has long been known for producing carefully handcrafted, expensive pianos used by leading concert pianists. During the past few years, however, our revenues have declined; meanwhile, the Allegro Musical Instrument Company introduced a line of inexpensive digital pianos and then saw its revenues increase. In order to increase Largo’s sales and in fact outsell Allegro, we should introduce a line of digital pianos in a variety of price ranges. Our digital pianos would be likely to find instant acceptance with customers, since they would be associated with the prestigious Largo name.” In this argument, the author argues for the introduction of a line of digital pianos in a variety of price ranges from Largo Piano Company in order to increase its sales. To support his proposal, the author points out that Allegro Musical Instrument Company has introduced a line of inexpensive digital pianos and its revenues increased. In addition, the author reasons that Largo's digital pianos would be likely to find instant acceptance with customers because Largo is prestigious for producing handcrafted expensive pianos. At first glance, this proposal appears somehow appealing. However, a close examination will reveal how groundless it is. This argument is problematic for the following reasons.
In the first place, the argument has committed a false analogy fallacy. The argument rests on the assumption that Allegro Musical Instrument Company is analogous to Largo Piano Company, and the success of Allegro will guarantee a similar success of Largo in sales. However, it is highly doubtful that the fact drawn from Allegro is applicable to Largo due to their different background. Allegro may be well known for their high technology digital instruments, thus their newly introduced digital piano can be instantly accepted by the customers. On the contrary, Largo is famous for their handmade expensive piano, which may lead customer to doubt whether Largo is capable of producing high technology digital pianos. Thus, it is likely that Largo’s digital piano will not be instantly accepted by the customer as the arguer expected.
In the second place, the arguer fails to take into account other crucial aspects that may affect the outcome of their plan, such as the cost of introducing the digital piano. Since Largo mainly produce handmade piano, it may cost them a lot more money to invent a digital piano series than it would cost Allegro, which may already have a complete producing line for digital instruments. In order to carry out this plan, Largo will have to build a research development team, and purchase a new series of machine to produce the piano. Moreover, Largo is also lack of experience in producing digital piano, as well as marketing this product. All these factors add together not only may not increase Largo’s revenue, but also may cause further revenue decline. Therefore, it is unwise for Largo to carry out this plan without considering the whole situation comprehensively.
To sum up, the idea should not be adopted because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the author claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer would have to provide more information to prove that Largo’s digital piano will be instantly accepted by the customer, and the plan will bring a revenue increase after considering other factors such as the cost.
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发表于 2006-11-8 14:09:00
