AAA12感谢小女公子的文章欢迎继续讨论

A12. The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Mama Mia's, a chain of Italian restaurants:

“Officials of the movie industry report that over 70% of the movies released last year targeted a teenage audience. Furthermore, national sales data indicate that the favorite food of teenagers is pizza. Since a branch store of Good Times Movie Rental opened on Center Street six months ago, sales of takeout pizza at our restaurant next door have been higher than at any other restaurant in our chain. Because the rental of movies seems to stimulate pizza sales, the best way to increase our profits is to open new Mama Mia's restaurants next to or very near all of the Good Times Movie Rental stores.”

According to the argument, the author recommends to open new Mama Mia's restaurants next to all of the Good Times Movie Rental stores. The major assumption underlying the conclusion is that Good Times Movie Rental stores stimulate sales of pizza. To buttress his claim, the author asserts that the favorite food of teenagers is pizza. Moreover, the author provides evidence showing that sales of one of Mama Mia's restaurants increase dramaticlly. Tha author's claim, however, is unwarranted for the following reasons.

To begin with, the author illogically asserts that the branch store of Good Times Movies Rental on Center Street causes the sales increase, only because the openness happens occasionally before the rise. The evidence provied is insufficient to establish a causal relationship between the two events. Many other factors may be responsible for the stimulated sales. For example, it is possible that the restaurant next to the branch of Good Times Movies RentalMama Mia’s restaurant on Center Street just innovates a new favor that is very popular among poplepeople. Or it is possible that this restaurant attracts clients by its superior service. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author reaches an unfounded conclusion.

Inaddition, the author offers statistics showing that 70% of movies target at teenagers, and teenagers generally love pizza. The information in the argument, however, is too vague to guarantee that teenagers will go to Good Times Movie Rental because most of the movies are produced for them. If the clients of Good Times Movie Rental mainly consists of adults, and teeagers rarly go to Good Times Movie Rental, it would be unlikely that teenagers will go to branches of Good Times Movie Rental, thus the potential clients of Mama Mia would not rise.

Last but not least, the author commits the fallacy of "all things equal". Even if teangers go to Good Times Movie Rental for movies, it is unlikely that this year the trend will continue. If the movies producers targets at adults or elders this year, teenagers will not go to rent movies. The triumph last year does not necessarily indicate a same seccess this year because the tendency may reverse. This possibility,  if, if true, will greatly invalidate the author's proposal.

To sum up, it is unwise for a prudent manager to follow the recommendation provided in the analysis. The information in the argument is vague and and oversimplified. To bolster his assertion, the author needs to offer more concrete data to show that Good Times Movie Rental will increase the sales of pizza. Moreover, I will still suspect the success rate of the plan unless the author rule out all the potentialities mentioned above.

注意那个时态的问题吧，AA整体已经比较好了。注意拼写和用词，后面我看的不是特别的仔细呵呵你粘到word里看一下。

1,the fact that 70% of the movies released targeted a teenage audience does mean that a specific cinema also have the similar amount of teenage films released.

2,the success of other store is not a good and sufficient guarantee for the success of another due to differnet background which may affect the validity of the analogy.

3 the success of the last year is not a good indicator to the future success

1, the fact that 70% of movies targeted teenagers does not mean that a similar percent of  movies in a specific cinema targeted teenagers  .

2, success of other stores can not guarantee a similar success to the Mama Mia's due to their different backgrounds which may affect the validity of the analogy.

3,it is true that kids like to eat pizza, however it is a groundless assumption that kids will also like to have pizza when watching a  film.

profit可以作为小女公子 的第三段来写

1。错误假设：租盘店的开张导致了匹萨店的外卖上升。

2。 去年的趋势不会延续到以后

3。错误类比