[求助]马上考了，写一篇aa082，请nn指点

Argument No.82

Question:

The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper.

`Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be.~

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

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Your Answer:

In the argument, the arguer concludes that forecasts of presidential election are little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be. To support the argument, the arguer reveals that many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until entering the voting booth. To strength the argument, the arguer reasons that some voters do not make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. The argument is unconvincing in that it suffers from two flaws.

In the first place, the evidences of the argument are too unclear to address the conclusion. The arguer cites the evidence that many voters keep changing their mind. However, the arguer does not address what is "many". If just 30%  present of the voters keep changing their mind in presidential election, the contention that forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls are not good is probable wrong. Therefore, without how many voters will change their mind in the election, the arguer cannot get the content.

In the second place, the arguer does not address how to take the survey, who are the samples and how many voters are included. The arguer lacks a lot of necessary evidences to prove the contention. For example, the samples of the poll are very small or within a narrow range of people, and then the argument will be not convincing. Therefore, to support the argument, the arguer should give more evidences about how to get the statistics and who take the survey.

In conclusion, the arguer reaches the contention without sufficient evidences. In addition, the evidences of the argument are also unclear. To strength the argument, the arguer should address some evidences and real statistics about the polls and how to get the results of poll. Without the evidence, the argument is totally wrong.

感觉还可以，就是反驳不够有力！请指点

   judy的提纲汇总  [ 2 3]

SORRY不能帮你具体改语法了~看看别人的讨论和提纲把~加油！！

多谢斑竹，语法我已经在word里改过了，问题是论证没有力度。怎么让论证深入？

多谢斑竹指点，我正在努力学习范文。