AA047 思路討論和awa內容 歡迎批評

好像這個月很常考的題目...請大家批評討論..謝謝呀

47. The following appeared as part of an article in the business section of a local newspaper.

“The owners of the Cumquat Café evidently made a good business decision in moving to a new location, as can be seen from the fact that the Café will soon celebrate its second anniversary there. Moreover, it appears that businesses are not likely to succeed at the old location: since the Café’s move, three different businesses — a tanning salon, an antique emporium, and a pet-grooming shop — have occupied its former spot.”

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To begin with, the author assumes that the reason for anniversary celebration is the café’s success at the new location. However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. In fact, this is not necessarily the case. For example, it is more likely that the owners want to stimulate their sales by holding special events such as celebrations. Another possible reason is that people at the new location did not know the café a lot. Obviously, the assumption is invalid.

Secondly, while indicating that three different businesses have occupied the café’s former spot, the author assumes without considering the background conditions. As we know, the café owners will have a promotion at the new location. Perhaps, the owners did not do the same thing at the old location. Besides, although it is true that three different businesses have occupied the café’s former spot, the fact is too vague to be informative. Three different businesses at the same spot cannot represent the whole old location. The author may inattentively ignore the fact that other people run their café businesses very well.

To sum up, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. Accordingly, it is arbitrarily for the author to claim that the owners made a good business decision in moving to a new location. To make this argument logically acceptable, the author would have to show that the figures of Cumquat Café sales are higher in the new location than in the old one. In addition, the author could strengthen his conclusion by providing concrete evidence that the whole businesses at the old location did not include café businesses. Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.

The major problem with this argument is that the author unfairly assumes that the Cafe’s move is the reason why the business will soon celebrate its second anniverasry in the new location.The mere fact that the move happened before celebration,the former proceded the latter, is insufficient to prove a causal relationship.Besides,other reasons may lead to the celebration,for example, the propose of  promoting the sales or publizing its new shop.If the author couldn’t rule out these possibilities,we can not safely come into the conclusion that the move is a successful one.As it stands, the author’s solution to the problem is based upon an oversimplified anaylsis of the issue.

Another problem that undermines the logic of this argument is that the author takes for granted and without justification that the old location is not suitable for business just because the failure of three different bussiness shops there.While the three business shops and the Cafe had the similarity as located at the same place , the diffences between them outweigh the similarity as they do different kind of business. Common sense tells me that different types of business should locate at different spots, and maybe this place is not the right place for these three business shops,but just suitable for the Cafe.The argument fails to take into account the possible differences between them and draws a hasty conclusion.

Moreover,there’re other factors that may contribute to the three business shops’ failure, for example, maybe because they couldn't well attract the customers around there.Another possibility is that the ways of their business operation  had some problems, such as bad services , poorly advertisings.

To sum up, the conclusion reached by the author is severely defeated by the confused logic in its reasoning process.To solidify the argument, the author should provide more concrete evidence to demonstrate why the proposal of move is a successful business idea. Additionally, the author have to rule out the above-mentioned possibility that may weaken the author’s claim.

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