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argument157
29:40
The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.
"Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our ownads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profit again."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In this memo the director asserts that if Top DogPet Stores (TDPS) should start putting their ads in Exotic Pets Monthly (EPM) ,they will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining and start making aprofit again. To justify this claim the director points out that five years agosince Fish Emporium (FE) started advertising in the magazine EPM, their salesincrease by 15 percent. The director further points out that the three FE storein Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that, so TPDS, which based inGulf City as well, should place ads on EPM. This argument suffers from severalcritical flaws and is therefore unpersuasive.
To begin with, the director unfairly assumes thatadvertising in the magazine EPM-rather than some other phenomenon-is the verycause of the sales increase. This is not necessarily the case. It is entirelypossible that the local TV program about pets evoke such a trend in having apet, or perhaps the marketing and pricing strategies they adapt in FE hadchanged and it proved to be effective, rendering the director’s recommendationunlikely to be effective. Lacking evidence that the assumption is valid, thedirector’s claim based upon it is dubious at best.
Next, even if the assumption is valid, thedirector’s claim rests on the poor assumption that all the factors relevant tothe effect of advertising in the magazine EPM remains the same five yearslater. This is unlikely to be true. Perhaps EPM was a popular magazine fiveyears ago when it is now unpopular, or perhaps EPM had shifted its theme andhave a totally different group of targeted readers; either scenario, if true,will seriously undermine the director’s claim. Without ruling out these andother possibilities the director cannot convince me that the recommendation isgoing to be of value.
Thirdly, even assuming that all the factorsremains the same, it is unwarranted to assume that by adopting the sameadvertising method TDPS are going to achieve the similar result as FE did fiveyears ago. It is entirely possible that TDPS are different from FE in vitalaspects rendering the same method invalid. Common sense informs us that it isvery likely to be the case because FE is a store selling fish, so EPM, whichfocuses on exotic animals, among which fish amounts to a significant portion,while TDPS’s main sales comes from dog selling, whose potential buyer is notlikely to favor exotic animals that only can be viewed at best and is unlikelyto read EPM. IF true, the recommendation will be of no value at all.
Finally, the director assumes without justificationthat advertising strategies-rather than some other problems-is the very causeof the decline in sales and that by changing the advertising method this trendwill be reverse. It is entirely possible that other factors, includingimprudent pricing and distribution strategies, poor management, and so forth,is the very cause of the decline, in which case the proposed way cannot beeffective because the essential problem have not been remedied yet. Moreover,the director assumes that the cost of advertising in TPM will be offset by theincrease revenue. This is not necessarily the case because common sense informsus that profitability is a function of both revenue and cost. Without knowing thecost of advertising in TPM, we cannot draw any sound conclusion about whetherprofitability is possible.
In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as itstands. To strengthen it the director must prove that advertising in EPM is thevery cause of the increase in FE and that FE is similar to TDPS in relevantways that will ensure the effectiveness of adopting the same method. Thedirector must also prove that all the factors remain the same during the lastfive years. To better evaluate the argument I would need more information aboutwhat cause the incline. |
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发表于 2013-3-20 13:20:56
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