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88. The following appeared in a memorandumwritten by the vice president of Health Naturally, a small but expanding chainof stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Ourprevious experience has been that our stores are most profitable in areas whereresidents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should thereforebuild one of our new stores in Plainsville, which clearly has many suchresidents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes andexercise equipment are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearlyclosed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, andthe weight-training and aerobics classes are always full. We can evenanticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren arerequired to participate in a program called Fitness for Life, which emphasizesthe benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate theargument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In this argument, the author concludes thatthey should build one of their new stores selling health food and otherhealth-related products in Plainsville. The argument seems somewhat appealingat first glance, however, close scrutiny of the author’s evidence reveals thatspecific evidence are in great need to further solidifying this argument.
Firstly, the author’s conclusion relies onthe assumptions that their previous experience are reliable enough to beapplied in Plainsville. Yet the difference between the places where thesestores are built in and Plainsville might undermine the analogy. For example, thespeed of economic development and favorite brands between them are different.Perhaps, the residents cannot afford the high prices of products in theirstores, unlike those in other places. Or perhaps, the residents inPlainsville prefer adidas rather than the brands in this store likeNike or Puma. Given no reliable evidence, the author cannot prove that thestore in Plainsville will be profitable in the future, too.
Moreover, to further support this argument,the author assumes that the high sales of running shoes and exercises equipmentand the prosperity of local health club will definitely contribute to enhancingthe customers of their stores. The author thinks that these behaviors show thatthe residents like exercise, so these residents will go to the store topurchase their products. Nevertheless, the author ignores other factors readilyexplaining these behaviors. Perhaps, those shoes are more beautiful and cheaperthan other clothes. And due to the vague number of the members of local healthclub, it is possible that there are 10 or less members in this club where studentsof the classes can be fewer, too, comparing with the population in Plainsville.Even if they like exercising and the style of products in this store, it ishighly possible that the prices of products in this store are too high forresidents to afford or they don’t have the demand at all and similar stores canalso competing with this store which is not beneficial to the store’s business.Without ruling out such chances, the arguer cannot justifiably conclude thatthe residents are potential consumers of their stores.
Last but not least, taking the future developmentpotential into consideration, the author assumes that schoolchildren participatingthe program and knowing the benefit of exercises will also stimulate theirstores profit. However, the author fails to show evidence about the schoolchildrenunderstand the meaning of exercises and will remain doing exercise in thefuture. Lacking this evidence, it is entirely possible that these schoolchildrenprefer working all the time or are obsessed with delicious food. In short,unless the author ruling out other scenarios cannot he convince me that theseschoolchildren are going to be the source of these stores’ profit.
To sum up, what the author mentioned aboveis based on some evidence failing to be convincing. To persuade me, the authorhave to provide valid evidence that the circumstances between different areasare similar which means the past experience is also applied to Plainsville. We shouldalso need to be offered more information whether the residents like exercise ornot in the past and in the future. Eventually, to better assess this argument,we would need to more specific evidence by making a survey to make it clear whetherthe residents and the club members will buy products in their store. |
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发表于 2013-3-12 23:03:29
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