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60) The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
This letter recommends the client to invest in the Consolidated Industries for the potential great profit from the company. To bolster the recommendation, the letter lists several reasons that Consolidated Industries would make a lot of money: the cold weather in northeastern U.S. will last for years, the increasing population would ask for much heating oil as fuel for heating, and Consolidated Industries will definitely gain a lot for one of its major operations is running business of home heating oil. However, perspicuous may the advisor be, the letter just does not make a tenable inference to the final recommendation which make it not convincing at all.
Firstly, the author assumes that the cold weather is going to continue in the following years based on the prediction of the some climate forecasters. This is the most important reason for investing the Consolidated Industries. However, the author just does not list commensurate information sources. The accuracy of the climate forecasters' predictions is not presented so that we do not know how much the potential risk might be. It can be equally possible that the prediction will not realize at all. An example is not difficult to find. For instance, several years ago, most of the climate mavens asserted that the global warming cannot be true that the temporal warming would soon be taken place by an opposite process. Unless the assumption is justified, that the cold weather will probably continue in the future, the recommendation is not reliable at all.
Another assumption made by the author is that the citizens will require much more heating oil than ever. However, it is another major reason which is quite questionable. The advisor does not present any concrete number (figure) on the size of the "increasing" new citizens and the oil in need. Without such vital information we cannot make such a conclusion that the heating oil market will grow greatly. What if while the increasing trend is true, the pace is slowing down soon? Even if the population is increasing greatly, it is also a possible preamble of migrating to other regions for the increasing pressure (pressure of survival). In either case, the investment would be unwise for the probable shrinkage of fuel market.
Last but not least important, even if the assumptions above were to be justified, it is quite questionable that the Consolidated Industries will gain a decent profit. The author simply believes that the Consolidated Industries is promising for the heating oil retailing operation it owns. Every sensible man will not rely on such a hasty (rough) assumption. There is no evidence that the tradition relying on heating oil as the major fuel in winter will remain. It is not difficult to subvert the assumption. For example, residents in northeastern U.S. may be realizing that using heating oil causes a lot of pollution to the nature and exacerbate the global warming, and some environment-protecting institution (green groups) is lobbying the government into prohibiting the using of heating oil. Moreover, it is equally possible that the operation of Consolidated Industries will not earn much money for other might-be heating oil retailers.
In sum, the advice might be insightful and the investment will bring a good profit. But the recommendation is not built on a reliable inference that it seems untenable. The author should do a lot of investigation and provide reliable information to make the recommendation believable.
另外，请问第二段最后一句的倒装是不是用错了？ |
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发表于 2012-10-20 21:58:39
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