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Argument 76 The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol(1,5), and today low-fat products abound in many food stores(2). Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol(7), the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease(3,4). We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company(6)."
The writer recommends Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, he also asserts other investors should not purchase stock in this company. To justify these conclusions, the author cites a survey which illustrated 80% respondents prefer to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, also he points out well stored low-fat products in food stores. However, the argument relies on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
To begin with, before evaluating a survey, one should consider how the survey was conducted. If the survey was self-reported or the questions were leading, the results will be open to doubt, because people may inclined to cater with the expected answers. Meanwhile, people should consider how broad the survey was. If the survey was limited to just senile citizens, the results might be applied to those people. Hence, the generalization drawn might not attribute to most people. In addition, even if the survey was broader, one must consider whether it was limited in certain ways. For example, were the respondents people who have weight problems?Was the survey limited to a certain fashion locale or industry? Factors such as these could strengthen the survey results and could undermine the credibility of the survey results.
Secondly, the author presents nowadays low-fat products abound in many food stores. At first glance, this is a compelling evidence for healthy diet. However, the fact that low-fat foods are in abundant supply in food stores does not necessarily indicate an increasing demand for low-fat dairy products or a diminishing demand for high-fat dairy products. It is quite possible that people are buying other types of low-fat foods but are still in need of high fat foods. the consumer tastes and habits have become so well entrenched that consumers would not be easily changed. What's more, though many products in Old Dairy is high- fat, it is equally possible that they do have other low-fat series with a strong market competition. Any of these scenarios, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the argument's conclusion that the company's sale are likely to diminish greatly.
Last but not least, the author assumes high fat foods sale decreasing will eliminate the company's profits with no doubt. Yet the newsletter contains no evidence to support this assumption. Perhaps the food department is just a small department in Old Dairy, perhaps the company is mainly focus on estate or telecommunication. Without ruling out other possible situations for high-fat food is the determination factor of the company's profit, the speaker cannot convince me.
In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster it the argument's author must show--perhaps by way of a reliable citywide study--that citizens of different backgrounds are all eager to intake healthy food. The author would also bolster the argument by providing reliable evidence that low fat foods are overwhelming in the food market. Finally, to better assess the argument I would need to know how the company is organized.
第一篇argument，半抄半写，写完了自己都不忍心看啊，好多觉得应该很简单的表达都写不出来。还有就是一直在练习自己找错误的能力，现在觉得错误倒是不难找，可是对错误的论证以及对错误的弥补却不是很容易的事情。还有连接词的问题，简单的看不上，可是连简单的也用不好……
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发表于 2012-7-29 21:13:44
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