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Argument 60 题目：
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
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Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
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The author of this letter predicts anincreased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in ConsolidatedIndustries since the trend of both the homes in northeastern United States anddays whose temperature are below normal are increasing. The argument seemsgood, however, the some assumptions on which the argument based are notscrutinized by the author, which may lead to the argument's being unwarranted.
In the first place, the author providesevidence indicating that the number of days whose temperature was below normalwas 90 days during last heating season. The author wants to express that thenumber of days with below-normal temperature is not a small one last year.However, the author fails to provide information about the number of days withthat temperature years before last winter. It is entirely possible thatbelow-normal-temperature days are much more than 90 during the heating seasonsbefore last year. In this way, it is likely that the temperature is climbing eachyear. To make the prediction more persuasive and less unconvincing, the authorhas to provide more evidence showing the trend of a declining temperature.
In addition, the author also claims thatclimate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for severalmore years. But I think of it unconvincing because the author assumes that theforecasters' prediction is accurate or at least likely; but as we all know, asa consequence of butterfly effect, every climate forecast is not accurate and thepredictions for long term is even more doubtful. In other words, the evidenceof forecasters' prediction is unconvincing and therefore the attempt ofconvincing us is seems impossible.
Finally, granted that the author consolidateshis assumption about history statistics and changes his evidence of the weatherforecast, the assertion is also tenuous. The author claims that many new homesare being built in the region which will lead to the mounting demand forheating oil. But a doubtful assumption that those newly-built homes will alsouse heating oil in the winters has to be evaluated. As the development ofmodern technology and the trend of energy conservation, there is highlypossible that new heating methods like air conditioners or solar heating methodwill be used, which will contribute to even the decline demand of heating oils.Unless the author provide information about the steady using of heating oil, wewill never convince the author of his prediction and therefore our doubts aboutthis argument are aroused.
To sum up, the author's argument isseemingly good; however, if some assumptions are taken into account, theauthor's prediction is definitely unconvincing. To strengthen this argument,the author has to provide more evidences to consolidate his assumptions orchange his way of reasoning. Only in this way can we believe in the author's predictionabout the increase of the demand of heating oil. |
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发表于 2012-5-21 19:41:56
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