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Argument 41 写作速度有一点点提高，但质量貌似有呈反比的趋势……>_< 求拍！
The following appeared in a health newsletter.
"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
1.只知比例不知总量
2.其他原因导致事故
3.信息不完整，针对serious injuries建议不一定有效
The suggestion that the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets seems logical at first glance. After all, during past ten years, the percentage of bicyclists wearing helmets increased while the number of bicycle-related accidents also increased. However, the argument is flawed by a series of unwarranted assumptions, which may result in an ineffective measurement to solve the problem.
Firstly, the author assumes that the number of bicyclists who do not wear helmets decreased sharply during the past ten years. But it may not be the case. With the absence of the total number of bicyclists, the number of bicyclists without helmets can not be sure. For example, if the total number of bicyclists increased from 1000 to 1 million during the past ten years, then the number of bicyclists without helmets increased from 650 to 200000. Actually, the number of bicyclists who are more likely to suffer from accidents is much more than ten years ago. In this case, we can hardly draw a conclusion that helmets are useless for bicyclists.
Secondly, the author claims that taking more risks with helmets is the reason of the increase of bicycle-related accidents. However, the author ignores a myriad of other possible reasons for the increase of accidents, for example, the boom of automobiles or the narrow streets. It is possible that during the ten years, the automobile becomes more popular while a lot of streets do not be widened timely. In this case, traffic jam happens more frequently and so do the traffic accidents. Thus, we can not place all the blame on bicyclists’ carelessness until we can rule out all the other possible reasons.
Finally, the author fails to provide the proportion of accidents with serious injuries to bicycle accidents during past ten years. It is possible that most of the bicycle-related accidents are not serious accidents and it may be useful to avoid accidents with more education about bicycle safety. However, as we know, helmets are designed for protecting bicyclists from serious injure during accidents. When it comes to serious accidents, the well educated bicyclist will still be badly injured without a helmet. Thus, the author’s suggestion may be not helpful to due with serious injuries caused by bicycle accidents.
In sum, the recommendation is unconvincing with the assumptions mentioned above. To improve the argument, the author must find out the real reason of the bicycle-related accidents. What is more, only after recognize the effect of both safety education and helmets can we make a helpful suggestion to solve the problem.
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发表于 2012-5-18 13:10:43
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