The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation,
the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce
the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council
of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island’s moped
rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting
the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in
moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville,
when Seaville’s town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered
in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result.
Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
Grounding on the result of the survey that there will be a boom of the population,the author implys an increase of the traffic accidents caused by mepes.In order to tackle this impending problem,the author suggests to reduce the amount of rented mepes,following the succuss of Seaville`s similar implementation.
This argument seems convincing at first sight. However,scrutinized as it has been,several critical flaws would be obvious which makes the argument unreasonable.
Firstly,the author have to respond to the question why population growth could inevitably contribute to an increase of the accidents.Imagine the city has well-organized traffic and its residents ,responsible and careful in general ,are all informed of taffic regulations that would certainly be obeyed;the road is wide and all traffic facilities are appropriate arranged. Under such circumstances, an uptrend of the accidents is less likely to occur. Thus, without the knowledge of the city`s specific details,a conclusion can hardly be drawn.
Secondly,even though the uprise of the accidents is for sure to come ,a doute still waits to be clarified --why have to limit the numbers of the rented mepes. The arthor has not anounced that in past years it is these vehicles that caused most of the accidents,nor did the author demonstrate a majority number of rented mepes among all that on the run.Thus ,maybe the rented only occupys a tiny percentage of all the mepes on the streets ,so the limit would do nothing to control the amounts of the mepes and so as to make no contribution to reducing the accidents even if the mepes are the criminals .And what is worse ,this measure may cause a side-effect--in general ,the people who rent mepes often live at the bottom of the society ,are in the disadvantage position.This policy would deprive the rare convenience they can enjoy.
Thirdly,in citing Seaville`s success,the author must answer if the condition of B are as the same as C.What if C has the morjority of rented mepes which caused most of its accidents but B has not?what if C`street are narrow so that the policy once set,is efficient immediately. Without kowning such specific details ,the author could not declare that the policy will be effective.
In sum,though the argument manefested a sound concern of the probable problem,it lacks a deep analysis of the whole incident.Thus,to figure out the relation between population growth and increase of the accidents ,and the condition of B is neccesary to make a more reasonable policy. |
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发表于 2012-5-15 21:34:58
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