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15. The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants.
""Recently, butter has been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. This change, however, has had little impact on our customers. In fact, only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers do not distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine.""
Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.
结论：This change had little impact on our customers.
论据:
(1) Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that an average of 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change.
(2) Many severs have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter donot complain when they are given margarine instead.
(3) These customers do not distinguish butter from margarin or they use the term “butter” ro refer to either butter or margrine.
提纲：
(1) 2%的人抱怨并不代表只有2%的人不喜欢，很多人选择不说。而且不抱怨的人也并不是happy with the change.
(2) 服务员说的话并不可靠，如果抱怨多的话会增加服务员的工作量
(3) 说顾客不能分清butter & margrine 完全是一厢情愿的论断，可能是顾客不愿为了一点黄油破坏心情。
Argument:
In this memo, the author asserts that the change of using margarine to take place of butter had little impact on customers. To support his/her argument, the author points out that only about 2 percent of customers have complained, and cites the servers’ reports that a number of customers do not complain when they are given margarine instead, and also claims that customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they just use ”butter” to refer to either butter or margarine. While the conclusion is plausible at the first glance, a close scrutiny of this argument is unconvincing in many regards.
Implied in the argument is the unwarranted assumption that surely there is only 2 percent of customers have complained the change, without other situation existing. If all the customers express their own honest opinion, showing the good result, it may be true. Otherwise, the conclusion is unfounded. There may be an alternative explanation that customers may have been unsatisfied with the change for going to other restaurants next time rather complaining, because they just do not want to destroy their happy dinner time by arguing with servers. Moreover, even if 98 percent customers did not mind the difference between butter and margarine, the author cannot say that they are “happy” with this change. An either-or logic made by author can be explained the possibility that what they feel is not to matter.
Additionally, the author suggests that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead by assuming that the servers told the truth and customers expressed their honest opinions, a similar mistake linked with the only 2 percent customers’ complaints . Perhaps the fact is that the servers concealed the truth because of the increasing work when they report any kind of customers’ complaints. Perhaps the servers are so busy in serving every table that customers get no chance to complain. Still perhaps customers choose other restaurants next time without complaints. Without accounting for and ruling out these or other alternative explanations, the author cannot bolster his/her conclusion.
Furthermore, even if her/his inference and deduction made in the argument above is true, the author still fails to perform a feasibility analysis that they cannot distinguish butter and margarine, or just use the term “butter” to refer butter and margarine. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that is necessarily the case, and the author does not supply any evidence to confirm the argument. It is likely that no one cannot distinguish butter and margarine, and the author just cheats himself/herself by doing this judge.
Surely there may be no impacts on the change of using margarine to replace butter. However, the conclusion the author make is invalid and misleading, basing on my above analysis. They cannot expect the truth of the change if they are just satisfied with the present. Careful analysis of all the factors I have presented is the best first step to get the truth of the change. |
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发表于 2012-5-11 12:58:20
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