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Argu172
题目：The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of
Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.
"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in
its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost
immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on
bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains
constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective
way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg.
By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining
neighborhoods in our city."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is
needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would
weaken or strengthen the argument.
习作：
The arguer claims in the article that in order to reduce crime in the way, and to revitalize the decreasing number of neighborhoods, the Amburg city should follow the Belleville city's example. Citing the evidence that the vandalism in the Belleville city declined directly after they installed the intensity lighting in the business district, and comparing with the situation of hte Amburg city, the arguer's statement seems to be valid at first glance. However, after considering the basic evidence of the statement, it might be unwarranted to take the assertion.
In the first place, the arguer quoted that the Belleville city installed the intensity lighting and immediately decreased the number of crime as a result without considering other possibilities. While it is valid to claim that the correlation of the two events is the cause-and-consequence relationship, it is entirely logically possible that the policy of the Belleville city which has changed cause the decline of the crime. The arguer, only focusing on one of the changes in the Belleville city, would overlook the other possibilities and as a consequence, led to the invalid assertion.
Granted that the intensity lighting is the main reason of the decline of the crime in the Belleville city, it is hasty to get the conclusion that the Amburg city would get the similar consequence if they install the intensity lighting too. For instance, The Amburg city might have the different location and even diverse culture and policy with the Belleville city, and the effect of recommendation of the arguer would be questionable.
Provided that the intensity lighting, if installed in the Amburg city, would decrease the crime in the way, it is groundless to assert that the the declining neighbors would increase in the future, as the result of the action. Without given the reason of the decline of the neighborhoods, we do not know why the neighborhood decreased and of course, we could not get the solution of it. Furthermore, although the large number of crime might be possible to be the rationale of the decline, there are other possibilities, and without more evidences given, we could not rule them out.
In sum, the evidence given in the article is not enough to support the arguer's assertion that the intensity lighting, if installed in the Amburg city, would lead to the reducing crime as well as the increasing neighborhoods in the city. More evidences such as the circumstances of the two cities and the exact statistics of further investigation are needed in order to make the argument valid. |
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发表于 2012-4-21 20:29:45
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