- UID
- 730188
- 在线时间
- 小时
- 注册时间
- 2012-3-1
- 最后登录
- 1970-1-1
- 主题
- 帖子
- 性别
- 保密
|
In thisargument, the arguer recommends that government should pay more attention toeducating people about bicycle safety rather than requiring them to wearhelmets. To substantiate the recommendation the arguer cites a ten-year studyindicating that although the number of bicyclists who wearing helmetsincreases, the number of accidents involving bicyclistsalso increases, from which the arguer deducesthat people feel more safer when they wear helmets, leading they take morerisks actually. Though the argument seems plausible at the first glance,close scrutiny reveals that the argument relies on a series of unconvincingassumptions, which render it unreliable as it stands.
The firstproblem with the argument lies on the validity of the cited study. The arguerdraws the conclusion based on that the result study mentioned in the argumentis reliable. However, the arguer fails to present evidence to support thisassumption. Neither the number of the subjectsin the study nor the detailed information of the study is given in theargument. Thus we don't know that whether subjectsof study are representative of the general conditionof bicyclists. It is possible that the researchers only chose 100 people tohelp them finish this study, which far from made the study convincing. Withoutgiving specific evidence to preclude such a possibility, the arguer cannotconvince me the validity of the conclusion that wearing helmets helps littleprevent accidents.
Even though the result of the study isconvincing, the argument is still open to doubt. The arguer deduces from thestudy that people who wear helmets in fact take more risks under the assumptionthat the total number of bicyclists has remainedunchanged over the past ten years, which is unwarranted. Common sense tells us,it is more possible that there are much more people riding a bicycle than tenyear ago, perhaps ten time. If this is the case, even the number ofbicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent,it still shows that lower percent of bicyclistsget injured in nowadays. Unless compelling data is given to support theassumption that the total number of bicyclists has changed little, the argumentremains unconvincing.
Even if the arguer are able to substantiateall foregoing assumptions, the argument still relies on a doubtful assumptionthat more people get injured nowadays because they feel safer when they wear helmets.The arguer omits other factor might account for the increasing number ofbicycle-related accidents. For example, there are much more cars running at ahigh speed on the roads, which, definitely makes the traffic condition moredangerous. To identify the actual cause of theincreasing accidents, the arguer at least should make a comprehensive study tosupport the assumption.
In sum, the argument depends on manyunsubstantiated assumption, none of which are firmly supported. To bolster therecommendation given in the argument, the arguer should provide compellingevidence to shore up these assumptions includingthat the result of cited study is reliable, that the number of bicyclists hasremained unchanged during ten years and that lower awareness of safety is responsible for the increasing accidents.
PS:普渡哥..别老揪我第一句了,,,也看看下面吧.. |
|
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2012-4-10 23:42:20
收藏
收藏
楼主
