求一个AA的思路

penglili · 发表于 2010-3-26 21:51:19

题目 The following appeared in the editorial section of a daily newspaper.
“Although forecasts of presidential elections based on opinion polls measure current voter preference, many voters keep changing their minds about whom they prefer until the last few days before the balloting. Some do not even make a final decision until they enter the voting booth. Forecasts based on opinion polls are therefore little better at predicting election outcomes than a random guess would be.”
我想了很久没有什么思路
反驳它只想到了一点就是拿不定主意的人只是很少很少一部分人不会影响预测结果之后脑袋就卡了想不出来了还请各位高手帮帮忙

coolhaoming · 发表于 2010-3-29 01:02:36

刚回查了一下arguement pool，可以从两点来说：
1.因为民调的结果会影响选民的选择，所以民调比随即猜测更准
2.就是楼主的观点，大部分人还是做好了决定的。题干中some是多少没说明白
这个题在reasoning line里flaw不多，但是分析一下题外的一些东西能发现1，确实不太好想……

求一个AA的思路

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