还有这篇AA,麻烦了
B6. The following appeared in a letter from a part-owner of a small retail clothing chain to her business partner:
“Commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood for several years, while the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. It seems obvious, then, that a retail space in Sandida Heights must now be much more expensive than a similar space in Palm Grove, which was not the case several years ago. So, it appears that retail spaces in Sandida Heights are now overpriced relative to those in Palm Grove. Therefore, it would be in our financial interest to purchase a retail space in Palm Grove rather than in Sandida Heights.”
The part-owner argues that the company should purchase a retail space in Palm Grove because the commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood fro several years while the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. She concludes that a retail space in Sandida Heights must now be much more expensive than a similar space in Palm Gove. At the first glance, the reasoning is plausible. But further examination reviews that the line of reasoning is too casual and based on some uncertain assumptions.
First, the argument rests on the assumption that the commercial real estate prices have been rising steadily in the Sandida Heights neighborhood for several years means the price must now be much more expensive. The assumption is oversimplified and wide open to uncertainty. A past present can not indicate the current situation. There are so many possibilities that make the price keep increasing steadily and remain the same or even become lower currently. For example, because of prosper economic development several year ago, the market of office building was exceptionally hot. Every new office had been sold out before the completion of the decoration and the old office had been reserved before the old tenants moved out. But after a few years, the market has been saturated and fewer people need to buy new office, which cause the price remain the same with the previous year and is projected to be lower very soon. So, it’s not reasonable to justify the current situation and foresee the future depending on the past facts.
Besides, the part-owner just argues that the commercial real estate prices in the Sandida Heights have been increasing and the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove have remained the same. This statement can’t conclude that the prices in Sandida Heights are higher than that in Palm Grove. This is unwarranted assumption. The commercial real estate prices in the Sandida Heights neighborhood might be far lower than the prices in the adjacent neighborhood of Palm Grove several years ago. A possible reason that the officer of that community strengthened the extent of the publicity of the real estate in the Sandida Heights neighborhood, drew more attention from the public and increased the sales, and thus, the price was increased accordingly. But this can not explain that the price is higher than that of other community’s. The essential evidence to support the state that the prices in Sandida Heights are higher than that in Palm Grove is needed. Otherwise, the line of reasoning is ridiculous.
Furthermore, it’s not logically to say that the company should purchase a place with modest price just because the price in other place is increasing. I think the part-owner should examine the reason of the increasing price behind carefully. Normally, the commercial price will not be increased without a good reason. There might be some explanations, such as improved transportation, prestigious commercial location, or new established commercial center. Such physical factors are crucial to a corporation. If the benefits from the purchase of a real estate weigh the loose on the financial interest, it’s wise to make such move. Because the corporation should focus on the long term development and avoid being short-sighted.
To conclude, the argument that the part-owner makes is not persuasive as it stands. Thus, it is imprudent for her to claim that the company should purchase the real estate in Palm Grove. To make this argument more logically acceptable, the part-owner must provide more evidence. Only with more convincing evidence could make this argument more than just emotional appear. |