108. The following appeared as part of a business plan created by the management of the laceName w:st="on">TakelaceName> laceName w:st="on">HeartlaceName> laceName w:st="on">FitnesslaceName> laceType w:st="on">CenterlaceType>.
“After opening the new swimming pool early last summer, Take Heart saw a 12 percent increase in the use of the center by members. Therefore, in order to increase the number of our members and thus our revenues, which depend on membership fees, we should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years: for example, a multipurpose game room, a tennis court, and a miniature golf course. Being the only center in the area offering this range of activities would give us a competitive advantage in the health and recreation market.”
In this argument, the author reached the conclusion that the laceName w:st="on">TakelaceName> Heart Fitness Center should continue to add new recreational facilities in subsequent years in order to increase the number of members, so that they can increase their revenue at the same time. This recommendation is depend on the reason that they had 12 more members after the opening of the new swimming pool early last summer. The line of this argument suffers some logical fallacies as follow.
In the first place, the author unfairly assume that the 12 percent increase in the use of the center by member was just the result of the new swimming pool. It is very likely, actually, that some other reasons can explain it, for example, students began their summer holiday just that time, and make more use in the Fitness Center.
In the second place, even though the 12 percent increase was just the result of the new swimming pool, the line of reasoning is suffers the fallacy of false analogous. The author wrongly assumes that the situation would remain unchanged since that summer. May be the citizens around the fitness center can not afford the expenses on the new recreational facilities like tennis court and miniature golf course, which is much more expensive than that of swimming.
In the last, the author thinks the revenue of the fitness center is only depends on the membership fees, however, there is some other aspect which can affect revenue greatly, like non membership fees and pays from groups, which is also important.
In conclusion, it is imprudent to apply the business plan of increasing the facillities simply because the increase of membership in the last summer, in order to increase the credibility, the author should give more evidence of last summer's success and analysis of situation of this year. Further more, evaluation is needed to testify whether the whole revenue will increase.
红的是我改锅的错字
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-4-15 20:52:23编辑过] |