- UID
- 6818
- 在线时间
- 小时
- 注册时间
- 2003-7-15
- 最后登录
- 1970-1-1
- 主题
- 帖子
- 性别
- 保密
|
第一次写作文，请大家多加评点，请多多指教啊，谢谢。
AA1
In this argument, the author predicts that Olympic Foods can minimize costs and maximize profits in the near future. To support this prediction, the author reasons that the costs of processing decrease over time because organizations learn how to do things better. In addition, the author provided evidence that the cost of color film print fell substatially from 1970 to 1984. At first glance, the author's argument appears to be somewhat convincing, while futher reflection will reveal how grounless it is. This argument is problematic for the following reasons.
In the first place, the author assumes without justification that long experience is the sole reason of lower costs in film processing. It is an undeniable fact that long experience is pertinent to cost cutting, but the assumption that the decreased costs is entirely due to long experience is too presumptuous to be reliable. There are countless factors may exert impacts on processing costs. For instance, it is more likely that the raw material costs decreased dramatically, it is also likely that a significate scientific discovery made the processing much more efficient than before. Unless the author can provide sound and solid evidences that except long experience, all other factors that can exert impact on processing costs remain unchanged, can not the argument be convincing. Unfortunately, we do not find any such evidence. Therefore, the argument suffers from the logic fallacy of ungrounded assumption.
In the second place, the argument commits a false analogy fallacy. The conclusion in question depends upon a misleading comparison between film industry and frozen food industry. In fact, it is highly doubtful that the facts draw from film industry are applicable to frozen food industry. The striking differences between this two industries maybe far outweigh the surface similarities they share, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, the techniques in film industry has advanced very quickly during past ten years and enable the processing costs to go down, however, frozen foods industry is more traditional and less likely to cut processing costs over time. Thus, it is much more difficult for frozen foods industry to minimize costs and maximize profits over time. Unless the author clearly indicates that both film processing industry and frozen food industry are not different in any pertinent element, no analogy can be made.
In the third place, granted that lower costs are soley due to long experience and the analogy between the two industries can be made, the argument would still be unsound for another gratuitous assumption it rests on. The author indicates that minimized costs will necessarily lead to maximized profits for Olympic Foods. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor dose the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. In fact, it is entirely possible that sales decreace so drastically that profits shrink despite the lower costs. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out this kind of possibilities, the predication that the profit will be maximized can not be accepted.
In conclusion, the author fails to provide compelling justification for his prediction. As it stands, the reasoning does not constitute a logical argument in favor of the conclusion. To solidify the prediction, the author must provide more concrete evidence to demonstrate that long experience is the only reason of lower costs of processing color film and that the processing film industry can be analogy to frozen foods industry. To better assess the argument, we would also need more information concerning the relationship between minimize costs and maximize profits.
|
|
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号
发表于 2003-8-12 09:58:00
楼主
