argument 24 求狂批

HAISHENG1006

24. A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
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The arguer cites a twenty-year study on headaches investigated the therapeutic effect of aslicylates. However, the following questions should be answered in order to guarantee the reliability of the study. At first, is the sample sufficient in size and valid or reliable? For example, the people studied only consist of ten individuals. Possibly, the survey result is insignificant due to the existence of casual factors---such as physical conditions, eating habits, and so on. At the same time, the arguer should guarantee the study is performed judicially. Absent answers that this is the case, it is entirely possible that investigators exaggerate the therapeutic effect of salicylates on treating headaches because of the inducement of companies selling salicylates. In addition, could the study respondents be representative of whole residents? For example, if the study respondents are mainly this kind of people living an easy life, perhaps salicylates are more helpful for them to treat headaches. Yet for residents in press, the function may be infinitesimal. Obviously, the respondents cannot typify the total residents. Whichever is unconvincing, the prediction that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future will be unwarranted.

Even if the twenty-year study result about the correlation between the increased use of salicylates and the decreased number of headaches is persuasive, is the latter caused by the former? At first, perhaps salicylates do little for treating headaches, whose consumption rise significantly these years due to good advertising campaigns inducing the majority. Moreover, perhaps the decreased number of headaches results from other factors. For example, with the enhancement of living standard, residents have the ability to purchase more and more beneficial products or food. Naturally, the incidence of headaches may decline. And perhaps improvement of environmental conditions would be helpful to treat headaches. If so, the prediction about fewer headaches in the future may be unconvincing, which base on the cause-and-effect relationship between the therapeutic effect of salicylates and treating headaches, because the factors affecting headaches may change. For instance, perhaps the pollution of environment in the future will give rise to more headaches.

After the study, food-processing companies found the result that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for food. Is the result reliable or valid? The arguer provides no answers to verify the study result of food-processing companies. Because the study is conducted by food-processing companies and not justified by the third party, it is quite possible that they distort the result of study for more profits. More seriously, overmuch salicylates consumed may do harm to our bodies. In this case, consuming salicylates not only cannot restrict headaches, but also possibly damage residents’ health.