【每日阅读训练第四期——速度越障24系列】【24-18】经管

杀G给猴看

Official Weibo: http://weibo.com/u/3476904471

大家好，周四经管~
今天的阅读一共三篇文章，分别是关于新兴经济体可能面临的危机，为什么各国热衷于申奥，以及中国的城镇化。Enjoy~

PART I: SPEAKER

Article 1:
Listen to a TED talk on The Puzzle of Motivation.


【REPHRASE 1】

【SPEECH: 18:36】


Source: TED
http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_pink_on_motivation.html

PART II: SPEED

Article 2: Are Emerging Economies Entering a Lost Decade?
By Anders Aslund Sep 11, 2013

【TIME 2】
Financial markets are signaling that several major emerging economies may be approaching crisis.

Morgan Stanley has named Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa the “fragile five.” They share some common characteristics: All took in excessive short-term international financial inflows, which enticed them into accepting excessive current-account deficits for too long. High economic growth has made their governments complacent, even as rising exchange rates undermined their competitiveness. Now their growth rates and exchange rates are falling.

The catalyst, though not the actual cause, of the current market developments was the prospect of a rise in U.S. interest rates that began to take shape with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s May 22 talk about “tapering” quantitative easing. Since then, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has surged by more than 100 basis points and continues to rise, even though the Fed hasn’t begun to reduce the pace of its securities purchases.

Bond yields of vulnerable emerging economies have risen faster. Investors had always known that the zero U.S. interest rates would eventually normalize. Given that the Fed inflation target is 2 percent, and a real 10-year bond yield of 3 percent used to be the average, it is reasonable to expect the bond yield to rise to about 5 percent.

Emerging economies are in trouble because the credit and commodity booms that brought high rates of economic growth are unsustainable. Many have received large volumes of fluid international capital. If their exchange rates fall rapidly, large volumes of money will float out and inflation may surge. If they defend their exchange rates with reserves, those will shrink fast. In either case, emerging economies may have to cope with the sudden end of international financing.
【TIME 2 ENDS – 283 WORDS】

【TIME 3】
Global Investment

The global investment ratio is bound to decline significantly as real interest rates rise. In recent years, China has accounted for a large share of global investment, and in 2009, fiscal stimulus pushed its investment ratio to an extreme level of 48 percent of gross domestic product, from an already high rate of 35 percent in 2000. That isn’t sustainable. The Chinese investment ratio is bound to fall by at least a 10th of GDP, which would reduce the global investment ratio, too.

Similar trends were visible at the beginning of Latin America’s lost decade, in the early 1980s. As then, the world is now approaching a downward turn of two long cycles, the 15- to 20-year long financial cycle and the even longer commodity cycle. Emerging markets benefited from both the credit and commodity cycles that have now peaked and begun a long-term decline of a decade or so.

The macroeconomic situation of today’s emerging economies is far better than it was in some of the Latin American countries in the 1980s. Argentina, Brazil and Peru had large budget deficits and pegged exchange rates, leading to hyperinflation and default. Today, major emerging economies have low inflation, limited budget deficits, mostly floating exchange rates and large international reserves. It’s worth recalling that the same was said about the U.S. andEurope before the recent recession.

Demand for commodities is bound to decline with less investment. In recent years, China has accounted for about 40 percent of global consumption of major commodities. The long commodity cycle peaked in 1980, and it reached a new peak in 2008. After the oil shock of the 1970s, oil prices were very high from 1973 until 1980. But from 1981 until 1986, they fell steadily as energy consumption declined.
We are in a similar situation today. Global commodity prices rose sharply from 2003 until 2008, and they maintained a high level until 2012 because of the very loose global monetary policy, which encouraged both investment and speculative positions in commodities.
【TIME 3 ENDS – 334 WORDS】

【TIME 4】
Energy Savings

After such a long period of high energy prices, greater energy savings are likely. Technological revolutions such as shale gas, tight oil, deep-sea drilling and liquefied natural gas production have generated a far greater supply effect than in the 1980s. This year, prices of almost all commodities have declined, and are likely to continue to fall for at least half a decade.

In the early 1980s, the world experienced similar critical trends: rising global interest rates (both nominal and real), declining investment ratios and lower commodity prices. Poorly managed emerging economies were battered then, and they are likely to be affected again.
Emerging economies with large current-account deficits, foreign indebtedness, budget deficits and public debts would be the first to suffer. The turmoil could then spread to large commodity exporters, such as Russia, Brazil and South Africa. China, by contrast, would benefit from lower commodity prices, but it appears overleveraged, with a huge bank credit that amounts to twice GDP.

Global trends don’t change very often, but when they do change, they do so sharply. From 2000 to 2012, emerging economies grew 5.9 percent a year on average; U.S. growth was 1.8 percent. This led many people to declare the victory of the emerging economies over the West. But the high levels of emerging-market growth were artificial, caused by the global credit boom (the Greenspan put) and then huge credit transfers from the West.

The pre-boom period, 1980-2000, may be more representative of a normal period. Then, the emerging economies grew an average of 3.7 percent a year, significantly faster than the U.S., at 3.2 percent a year. That meant increasing economic divergence, because the U.S. increased its advantage given the far lower staring level of the emerging economies.
【TIME 4 ENDS – 289 WORDS】

【TIME 5】
Financial Turbulence

As a consequence of these global developments, in the early 1980s, the U.S. experienced large currency inflows that drove up the trade-weighted U.S. dollar exchange rate by 40 percent from 1980 to 1985, and lifted stock and bond prices. This is likely to happen again. Global economic growth will probably moderate with deleveraging and financial turbulence in the emerging economies, while the U.S. will proceed with a normal growth rate of 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent a year.

In Europe, the long recession has brought fiscal consolidation and substantial structural changes, such as labor market reforms. The continent is now returning to growth, which is likely to be accelerated by those tough reforms. For a decade or so, the West could take the global economic lead once again as it did in the 1980s.

Many emerging economies that ignored necessary structural reforms during the boom could experience low growth for a prolonged period. They have allowed state and crony capitalism to thrive, locking themselves into a middle-income trap. Those that carried out sound reforms -- Central and Eastern Europe, Chile, Mexico, Colombia and South Korea -- are likely to do well.

Eventually, after making enough mistakes, the struggling emerging economies will be forced to undertake the necessary reforms. In Latin America of the 1980s, this involved democratization, liberalization, macroeconomic stabilization and privatization, which took at least a decade. The next round of reform will be hard, too, but change is the only way forward.
【TIME 5 ENDS – 244 WORDS】
Source: Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-10/are-emerging-economies-entering-a-lost-decade-.html

Article 3: Why would anyone want to host the Olympics?
Sep 8th 2013 by T.W.

【WARM UP】
TO TRIUMPHANT shouts of “banzai!” it was announced on September 7th that Tokyo would host the 2020 Olympic games. The city fended off not-especially-stiff competition from Madrid, whose chances were damaged by Spain’s sickly economy, and Istanbul, whose image was tarnished when its police spent the summer practising for the 100-metre baton-charge. It was not the strongest field of candidate cities in Olympic history. But the contest demonstrated the lengths that countries will go to for the privilege of hosting the world’s biggest sporting bash. Shinzo Abe (pictured above, third from right), Mariano Rajoy and Recep Tayyip Erdogan all flew to Buenos Aires, where the International Olympic Committee (IOC) was voting, to make the official case for their respective countries. Tokyo had previously bid unsuccessfully for the 2016 games; Madrid had bid for both 2016 and 2012. Poor Istanbul has now been rejected five times. Why are cities so keen to host the Olympics?

On the face of it, throwing the world’s biggest party—and paying for it—is not especially appealing. The cost used to be fairly modest: London’s 1948 Olympics cost £732,268, or about £20m ($30m) in today’s money. Nowadays hosting the games is a different business. The 2008 Beijing games, the priciest ever, are reckoned to have cost about $40 billion. That is likely to be eclipsed next year by the Sochi winter games, which are on course to cost $50 billion. Tourism may help to offset the expense, but a spike in arrivals is not guaranteed: Beijing saw a drop in hotel bookings during its Olympic summer. And the chance to spruce up a city sometimes ends up creating eyesores instead. Some of Greece’s costly stadiums now look as run-down as the Parthenon (and have fewer visitors).
【291 WORDS】

【TIME 6】
The main reason cities want to host the Olympics is that, perhaps against the odds, they are wildly popular with the voters who foot the bill. The IOC found that public support for hosting the games was around 70% in Tokyo, 76% in Madrid and 83% in Istanbul. Londoners, sometimes a cynical bunch, were in favour of the 2012 games, in spite of dissent from some quarters (including this newspaper, which recommended leaving it to Paris). At the end of last year, with the crowds departed, eight out of ten said it was worth the extraordinary cost, even as cuts to public services began to bite. Popularity aside, Olympic bids often have other agendas. The Beijing games were intended to show off China’s spending and organisational power. London’s games were a means of bringing back to life a poor part of the capital at a speed that defied normal budgets and planning regulations. Tokyo hopes the 2020 games can gee up Japan’s lacklustre economy.

It is a high-risk game. Rio’s hosting of the 2016 games had strong local support during the bidding process, but has since become a focus of those protesting against government waste (they also rage against the World Cup, which Brazil will host next year). Politicians can be left looking ridiculous, or worse: Mexico’s 1968 Olympics are remembered as much for the massacre of student protesters ten days before the games as for the sporting events themselves. Even if it goes well, the seven-year gap between bidding for the games and staging them means that the politicians who shepherd the bid through are seldom around when the fun begins. The Labour government and Labour mayor of London who helped to win the bid for Britain were long gone by 2012. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is no longer Brazil’s president (though some wonder if he might just try to make a comeback). Shinzo Abe faces no term limits as Japan’s prime minister, so could, in theory, still be around to open the Tokyo games in 2020. More likely, though, someone else will be there to take the credit—or the blame.
【TIME 6 ENDS – 354 WORDS】
Source: The Economist
http://www.economist.com/node/21586139

PART III: OBSTACLE

Article 4: China Needs Beijing to Be Even Bigger
By Yukon Huang Sep 10, 2013

【PARAPHRASE 7】
One of the most critical and controversial economic debates in China today revolves around how the country should urbanize. Already, more Chinese live in cities than on the land, a proportion that is expected to rise to 70 percent by 2030.

Proponents of further urbanization are hoping that Premier Li Keqiang will announce reforms this fall that will make it easier for migrants to move to cities and receive the same rights as locals. This, they believe, will unlock the productivity gains needed to sustain growth over the coming decades. They’re right about the need for more city dwellers -- but not about the need for more cities.

Like many things in China, urbanization policy is driven by the central government, which has sought to discourage growth of the largest cities and instead promote smaller, often entirely new ones. On the surface, this makes sense: If Beijing and Shanghai -- which already host a combined 43 million people -- were to grow even bigger, they could sink under the weight of social and environmental decay, not to mention wasted expenditures.

China is already in a class by itself in accounting for 30 of the 50 largest cities in east Asia. It boasts half a dozen megacities with populations of more than 10 million and 25 “large” cities exceeding 4 million. In fact, though, the only way China will achieve its desired productivity gains is if its leaders allow cities to evolve more organically in response to market forces. They need to let cities like Beijing get bigger.

Agglomeration Benefits

The pressure for cities to grow comes from the combination of rural poverty -- which pushes migrants to seek out better-paying jobs -- and the power of “agglomeration economies.” These are the benefits gained by the concentration of companies and workers. The resulting economies of scale and network effects drive down costs and lead to specialization.

Yet China’s planners continue to see urbanization in terms of developing new cities and facilitating the flow of people into the smaller ones. Incentives for this to happen are reinforced by limited local-level financing options. Provincial governments have relied on the conversion of rural land to urban use to fund their obligations. They have strong incentives to encourage property appreciation and industrialization to strengthen their revenue base. At its worst, this has led to the creation of scores of “ghost” cities based on the mistaken view that once built, residents will naturally come.

Even in megacities like Beijing and Shanghai, incorporating suburban land is more appealing than making rational use of the core, which is replete with dilapidated low-rise buildings from the pre-reform era. As a result, urbanization has ended up dispersing people and activities rather than increasing density. Over the past several decades, China’s urban population has expanded by 2.5 times, but urban land area has increased eightfold.

Instead of actively trying to spread out growth to small new cities, China’s planners should embrace the agglomeration economies, which militate for larger metropolises. As land and wage costs escalate, some industries will eventually gravitate to medium-size cities, but services will continue to drive expansion in the larger ones. Smart people like to mix with other smart people, and globalization has amplified their financial returns. Beijing and Shanghai have continued to grow because of buoyant higher-value services, even as their manufacturing bases have shrunk. All this explains why in China, productivity in urban areas is more than three times that in rural areas.

But aren’t China’s megacities already too big to be sustainable? As a matter of fact, some urban specialists have concluded that even China’s biggest cities may be too small. They cite “Zipf’s law,” one of the great curiosities of urban research. The law, which is surprisingly accurate for many countries, claims that the biggest city in a country should be about twice the size of the second-biggest, three times the size of the third-biggest, and so forth. On this basis, China’s largest cities appear too small.

Mushrooming Cities

Certainly, there are negative consequences as cities mushroom in size. For companies, the rising costs of land and labor reduce the advantages of big cities; for workers, congestion and higher living expenses reduce their appeal. If Beijing handles its urbanization the wrong way, its citizens will join other Asian countries whose largest cities are caught in a net of pollution, clogged streets and underemployed poor.

These risks, however, have less to do with city size than with misguided urban-management policies. Beijing’s core, for example, is not being appropriately developed: Vast parcels of land sit underutilized, while affordable housing is pushed too far out from where the jobs are. A fascination with ring roads impedes traffic flow. The result is excessively long commutes with more traffic-related pollution than is necessary and a costlier provision of social services because of the higher capital costs of serving a dispersed population. These are all costs that could be avoided by taking a more rational, density-oriented approach to urban planning.

What China needs Li to implement this fall is a more efficient urbanization process -- one in which cities are allowed to evolve organically in response to changing conditions. This will require a financing system that provides the right incentives; social services and residency policies that facilitate rather than restrict labor mobility; land-use guidelines that promote more concentrated rather than dispersed development; and transport systems that encourage a more efficient location of activity.

This would probably lead to larger and denser but more environmentally friendly and livable cities. If China gets it right, its biggest cities will then generate the productivity gains needed for the economy to grow at 7 percent or more for the rest of this decade.
【OBSTACLE ENDS – 949 WORDS】
Source: Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-09/china-needs-beijing-to-be-even-bigger.html

lisa_chan

Thursday [24-18] 经管
   速度
Time2 1‘35 [283] Morgan Stanley named “weak five”. Describe the causes.

Time3 1‘42 [334]

Time4 1‘36 [289]

Time5 1‘21 [244]

Time6 1‘40 [354]

越障
1. One of the most important issues in China is urbanization. People are expecting Li Keqiang to push the reform.
2. Author’s perspective: China’s big cities, such as Beijing and Shanghai, are not big enough.
3. Argument 1 – Agglomerate Benefits
   1) Some Chinese planners and policy makers encourage people to go to smaller cities from village. This will create “ghost cities” and weaken the power of the megacities.
   2) Megacities have huge agglomerated industry and service advantages.
   3) And according to some theory, China’s big cities are still not big enough.
4. Argument 2 – Mushrooming Cities
    1) Some might have argued that the living condition, e.g. environment and living cost, in China’s big cities are already declining. If the cities get bigger, situation will aggravate.
     2) Author argues that the causes for aggravating conditions are the poor planning and development of the urbanized area, including land use, housing, and transportation etc. Better development will lead to good living condition.

写这篇文章的人真是站着说话不腰疼。第一，空城鬼城的出现，不是因为鼓励人们往中小城市流动造成的。是政府不负责任无科学规划不合理论证而盲目造城导致的。第二，中国经济的发展，就一定要用“城市规模”这个indication来衡量么？为什么要把全国人口结构要把全国人口结构同大城市人口比例往日本靠拢，为什么不跟西欧国家靠拢啊？第三，大都市圈的经济效应是肯定的。但是中国地大物博，为什么只看着北京上海？中国现在的问题是东西部发展极度不平衡，导致贫富差距大，资源分配不合理。每年劳民伤财的春运就是一个很好的例子。
中国应该多发展几个大都会圈，成都重庆南宁西安之类的。就像美国，西有加州IT圈，东有纽约金融圈；南部是德州能源产业龙头，西北有西雅图飞机制造中心, etc. 产业产能在地理上合理配置，不一头重死一头轻死，资源才能优化利用，地区差距小，贫富差距小。
退一万步说，就算要发展经济，也不能以中国人的生存环境和生存质量作为牺牲。如果每个中国人都能happy一点，经济发展慢一点，大都会圈小一点，也无妨。

铁板二米

沙发，嘿嘿！

*******************乖乖交作业的分割线***********************
辛苦小杀了，很好的文。越障让我想起前不久的财经郎眼，说的新政策下中国可能出现1亿人口的超大城市。挺有意思。

交作业：
Speaker
Offering rewards to motivate people sometime does not work but even hurts. Reward motivation depends on the specific skills to do the jobs.

Speed
Time2 1'52"
Fragile five countries might have big financial problems if their exchange rates fall rapidly.
Time3 1'55"
The emerging countries get benefits from low inflation.
Time4 1'46"
Enegy economics have increased stably for decades.
Time5 1'20"
Economics need to be reformed in the emerging countries. It is the only way to go forward.
Warm up 1'49"
Normally hosting Olympics helped the hosts make money, but in Beijing case it was different.
Time6 2'12"
To host a successful Olympic, funds from governments are a significant factor to accomplete it. For 2020, we will see how it will go.

Obstacle 5'21"
Main idea: Urbanization happens rapidly in China.
Author's attitude: Neutral
Article structure:
-- Background: Big cities in China such as Beijing and Shanghai have developed very fast.
-- two main reasons make people move to urban cities from rural ones:
a) to earn more money: big cities offer more jobs and higher payments than their hometowns.
b) better life/rapid development.
-- Conclusion: according to the rapid changes in big Chinese cities, the basic life, healthcare.. systems need to be good enough for supporting.

sherlock1992

TIME2-2′1″<283>Emerging market as mentioned like “fragile five" in the article faces economic crisis in the near future, which lies in their irrational current account behavior.
TIME3-1′44″<334>Investment ratio of China should decline though they're unbelivable high in the past, which peaks in the 2008. Although economic crisis of emerging market is inevitable, compared to 80s "lost decade" in South America, the situation now is better.
TIME4-1′40″<289>Energy saving, lower investment ratio and lower price of commodity is the future trend of the world.
TIME5-1′21″<244>Fiancial turbulance may come again similar to that of 1980s. And west countries may lead the global economy again. While some counties who trapped themselves into middle-income trap will...
TIME6-2′04″<354>This part mainly talks about the reason why Tokyo want to host the 2020 Olympics. There are two reasons, one is Olympics is a so popular event that most of the public have a favor, the other is Japan hope to boost his economy through holding the Olympic Games. Then, the article give a questions to Abe's choice compared to the Brazil's past tragedy.
OBSTACLE-5′50″<949>
Main points: the urbanizaiton of China as well as invloving problem.
Attitude:questioning.

dericklx4la

1'50''
2'29''
2'00''
1'25''
2'00''
5'37''
It seems to be reasonable that China has acclerated its process of urbanization by encouraging small, or new, cities rather than developing megacities such as Beijing or Shanghai.
However the agglomeration core such as Beijing will boom more benefit, because of concenrated companies and workers.
A growing number of small cities mushroom in China, and, the future development is expected to be decided by the policies implemented in the near future.

lytymay

1. 1:54
emerging economy may lead to crisis
MS named five countries as five fragile   
which economy rise fast but break suddenly
how the us economy rise
the trouble

2. 2:25
ratio in china   rise，decline
similar trend in latin america
the situation
the historical similarity
the oil price

3. 2:08
energy saving， some methods
early example
global trend

4. 1:44

5. 2:30
country want to hold the olympic because they want the olympic can help the country develop
attract more visitor，affect the economy
example：landon
china Rio
say rio's olympic have some difficult
same time to hold the world cup
example：。。。

cherry6891

华丽丽的首页啊

Five cities :Indonesia,brazil,..were seems as fragile five because they took excessive short-term international inflows.Now they are in dilemma about the exchange rate

TIME3  2:21

The situation in China is similar with what happened in Latin America in 1980.China has account for high percent of global consumption.

TIME4  2:11

This year almost all of the commodities have declined and are likely to continue to fall. China would benefit from the low price but with huge bank credit

TIME5 1:41

What each countries did to face the economic crisis:America--drive up exchange rate to 40%(是不是现在该把人民币换成美元呢)。Europe--brought fiscal consolidation and substantial structural

Latin America-- democratization ,liberalization ,macroeconomic stabilization and privatization

TIME6 4:40

Competing with Spain and Istanbul ,tokyo win the contest for hosting the big game.However,throwing the world’s biggest party is not especially appealing.

The main reason cities want to host the game showing they are against the odds then to win the voters who the bill,Japan hopes the 2020 games can gee up the dismay economy

Obstacle  6:59

The urbanization process--more city dwellers in the city not create many cities

Agglomeration economies--scale and network effects drive down costs and lead to specialization. To better achieve that, urbanization need to increase the people density, do not unban population expand 2.5 times but the unban area has increased 8 fold.However,there is negative consequences of mushroom cities, for example,polluted air condition,dogged street.Then the author put forward some method to deal with problem.Firstly,policy--right incentives,social service and residency policies that facilitate rather than restrict labor mobility.Secondly--land use guideline that promote more concentrated rather than dispersed development  

Changpoyu

插图好棒

Day2013.9.12

No listen

Time 2 :3'13'65

Some situation about current marketing and world consist .All the economies is in difficult time

Time 3 ;3'18'35

More detail about China the GDP the global investment the economies growth  and the author analyst the commodity cycles and emerging market will benefited from it and the oil price used to rise but last decades the price was decline,

Time 4 :2'53'48

About emerge saving? I do not trust complete. I think talk more about energy bring some country a lot of economy rise

Time 5 :'2'19'80

Talking about global developments influence the world economy

Time 6 :2'41'87

From the Tokyo has been voted author asked the main question:"why are cities so keen to host the Olympics?" and he give some example to readers

how much that some cities have cost in host the games and where the expense come from tourism,and other

Time 7 :2'48'58

the main reason is that Olympic games can make the host more famous and make the country economy growth , to have a highly place in the world and host this game have a lot of risk some city were fallen to make it peacefully but all the people  are expecting the game and Japan has the most support let us waiting for 2020s

it's time to go to bed

the new article has not come out so I do yesterday article.

OBSTACLE

ØWhat’s the overall point?

ØWhat’s the purpose of each paragraph?

ØWhat are the main pieces of content and judgment(conclusion) made?

ØWhat changes of direction exist?

Time:13'06'44

After first read:

This article has three part :

The first is some phenomenon

of China urban process ,China has too many people ,and wether China's city should more bigger?

The second part is analyst the cities from economy population policy and the size of cities commit that city can seat population and wether the size is suitable

The third part imagine if the city more bigger what will happen ?

Answer:

the overall point is wether China cities should more large?

paragraph1:Cities have more and more people when it urbanize

paragraph2ike a beginning use some people's viewpoint to tell readers the article force to city urbanization and the city utility

paragraph3:To commit central government policy on promote small city not big city and was unsatisfactory about the wasted expenditures.

paragraph4:say his opinion that cities should be bigger

paragraph5:the reason of city grow and the result of agglomeration economies

paragraph6:what Chinese government do to create more city which now is small ,they have some policy in economy but they have some mistake and got fall and some city is get to ghost city mean no body no body but you (just for fun)

paragraph7:talking about the mistake that China has only incorporating suburban but not developed a new city it cause urban area more big but urban population was not increased as much as land area increased,the author think by this way ,people activities has been dispersed but the density was not increasing I think it cause people have less connect and is bad for economy

paragraph8:analyst some detail about par.7said

paragraph9:get a preliminary conclusion that Chinese city is too small

paragraph10:Mushrooming Cities has some problem for people to live like high expense servers and crowded clogged underemployed

paragraph11:detail about problem that is what Chinese urbanization face to.

paragraph12:some solution of make city more fit for people to live how to developed and what should do to social finance

paragraph13:a good wish

疏离无罪

占座
抢首页，果断得靠微博
01:29
Financial markets think that some emerging econimies will face crisis.
These economies do not have sustainable base for its economic boom.

01:50
Most of the growth of emerging economies is depended on the investment.And the global investment is declining now.
The economic situation of the world now is similar to the siutation in 1980s,when global economy and emerging economies suffer a recession.

02:00
Emerging economies will suffer the lost in economies first,then large commodity exporters.
The boom of emerging economies is overestimated,because this boom is a result of the credit boom in western countries.

01:30
At that time that emerging economies are suffering recession,western countries would take the global economy lead once again.Emerging economies need to have a structural refrom to change to get out of this recession.

02:06
Many countries want to host the Olympics.And the cost to host this Sports events is increasing.
Tourism is likely to offset the expense,but the reality is inverse.

02:02
The support from the voters may be the main reason for the government to bid for the Olympics.
But this is still a high-risk action.Beacuse it is really a long time between the win of the bid and the beginning of the game.

06:32
China is facing a problem about how the country should urbanize.Shanghai and Bejing are suffer social and environmental problems because of the growing population.
"Thanks" for the agglomeration economies,more and more migrants come to these two big cities to seek out better-paying jobs.But this may not be a good choice for the preesure from the intense pressure and still too "small" citites.
Chinese central government has already make a policy to grwo small new cities,but the policy seems to be useless for many reasons.So Shanghai and Beijing have to be much bigger,While it will bring much more troubles.
China need a more efficient urbanization process and has to make these big cities more environmentally friendly and livable .This will help china's economy growth.

lxskyfly

谢谢小杀~终于抢来首页！
----
TIME2 2'01
- Prediction of decrease in emerging economy.
- cause? 1) anticipation of rising interest rate in US; 2) unsustainable economy caused by growing growth
TIME3 2'37
- we are in the similar situation as what happened in history, but with a better circumstances.
- two methods required to settle the problem: 1) decline in commodity rate; 2) decrease in investment along with interest rate
TIME4 2'23
- energy saving will be greater with long period of high energy price.
- economy will change sharply once it changes.
TIME5 1'35
- as a result of growth development, it is predicted tha US will increase its cash flow and exchange rate and Eur will take economy lead again.
- economy will undertake necessary reforms.
OVERALL: comparing the economy growth happened today to that in 1980s, economists have make some predictions about that trend.
经济理论相关的文章总是找不到段落之间的logic struture，求破！！

Mint静默

24-18
Speaker
有趣的lecture，而且这位gentleman的美音听起来好爽!谢谢分享！
Motivation often does not work and even do harm to the performance of people who are given motivations.
There is a mismatch between what the science knows and what the business does.
The easier tasks are, the more effective motivations are.
喜欢ROWE这个公司的工作模式~
T2 2’06’’
The emerging economies are getting down.
Entice [?n'ta?s; en-]
vt. 诱使；怂恿
Complacent [k?m'ple?s(?)nt]
adj. 自满的；得意的；满足的
读经管类文章老反应不过来…亏我本科还是相关专业.
catalyst ['k?t(?)l?st]
n. [物化] 催化剂；刺激因素
T3 2’08’’
T4 1’38’’
T5 1’21’’
T6 2’00’’
Fend [fend]
vt. 谋生；保护；挡开；供养
vi. 照料；供养；力争
Reckon ['rek(?)n]
vt. 测算，估计；认为；计算
vi. 估计；计算；猜想，料想
Eclipsed
v. 引起日蚀；遮暗；使…失色
Spike [spa?k]
n. 长钉，道钉；钉鞋；细高跟
vt. 阻止；以大钉钉牢；用尖物刺穿
Spruce [spru?s]
n. 云杉
vt. 打扮整齐
adj. 整洁的
vi. 打扮整齐；使显干净
Eyesore ['a?s??]
n. 眼中钉；难看的东西
Obstacle 5’57’’