感谢kim！不过貌似文本有点小问题呢，有的两个词连起来了~
因为我自己做的时候感觉这样比较影响理解，于是就着word的拼写检查修改了一下~
Part II: Speed Article 2 How Badly Will the Shutdown Hurt the U.S. Economy? [Time2] Withouta deal between Congress and President to fund the federal government, dozens offederal agencies have shuttered their doors and hundreds of thousands offederal workers have been sent home or are being asked to work without pay. Butwhat are the overall economic effects of a government shutdown? After all,government spending makes up roughly one-fifth of GDP, so a shutdown of thefederal government would presumably deal a big blow to the economy as a whole.Many economists are studying previous shutdowns to predict how the currentstandoff will influence the economy going forward. “Government shutdowns havebeen surprisingly common since 1976,” writes Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategistfor Janney Capital Markets, in a note to clients. He points out that thecurrent shutdown is actually the 18th such occurrence since 1976. The vast majorityof standoffs, however, have lasted just a few days. Given the apparent distancebetween Democrats’ and Republicans’ positions, analysts have been using themost recent 1995–96 shutdown (which lasted a total of 26 days) as a yardstickagainst which to analyze the current situation. LeBasestimates that if the 2013 shutdown lasts a similarly long time, it could shave0.8% from economic growth in the current quarter. The effects would become moresevere the longer the shutdown lasts. This reduction in economic growth wouldcome primarily from roughly 800,000 federal workers being put on furlough andleft without paychecks to spend. But as analysts at Macroeconomic Adviserspoint out, the long-term effect on the economy will have as much to do with howthe budget impasse is resolved as how long it lasts. They predict that atwo-week government shutdown will shave 0.3% from economic growth, but that theeffect will be reversed in the following quarter if the government ends upinstituting back pay for workers who were furloughed, as it did in last time. Inother words, the overall impact of a government shutdown on the economy will bemuted, as long as Democrats and Republicans are able to come to an agreementrelatively quickly. But that doesn’t mean that the economy will walk away fromthis showdown unscathed. “The real economic cost, which is extremely hard tomeasure, comes from heightened uncertainty,” writes LeBas. “Greater uncertaintywill create hesitancy on the part of businesses to embark on new projects, andencourage consumers … to save rather than spend.” 【401】 [Time3] Economistsbelieve that the greater threat to the U.S. going forward would beCongress’ failure to raise the debt ceiling, an impasse the Treasury Departmentpredicts the government will reach sometime in the middle of October. Congresshas both the ability to decide upon the total amount of federal spending aswell as the total amount of debt the government can incur. Every so often,however, a current Congress disagrees with the amount of spending approved byprevious Congresses, setting the stage for U.S. to owe more money than acurrent Congress is willing to issue debt for. IfCongress does not approve the issuance of new Treasury debt, that would putinto question whether Congress is able to issue Social Security payments infull, make full-interest payments on its outstanding debt, or honor any numberof other financial commitments the federal government is responsible for. LeBaswrites that “if the debt ceiling is not raised by that point the consequencesare admittedly hard to envision.” Muchof the global financial system relies on Treasury Debt and the U.S. dollar asthe currency with which it does business, and any event that could put thetrustworthiness of that debt into question could have broadly destabilizingeffects. And unlike government shutdowns, there is no recent history from whichto draw conclusions. The U.S.has never defaulted on its debt before, and therefore it’s difficult for economistsand market watchers to predict what would happen if it does later this month. 【249】 Source:TIME http://business.time.com/2013/10/01/how-badly-will-the-shutdown-hurt-the-u-s-economy
Article 3 Foroohar: The Government Is Down, So Why Aren’tStocks? [Time4] Apparently,markets have nothing to fear but fear itself. Yesterday, they were down inanticipation of the looming government shutdown. But so far today, US stocksare slightly up, and international markets have been mostly holding their own. Japan openedup, with business confidence at its highest level in years. Germany is up a bit too, and Londonand Paris areholding steady. Part of this is investor disbelief that the shutdown will lastvery long. Why?Wall Street exists in a very different world than Washington. For the last three years,every time the country has weathered a patch of political turmoil, there’s beena “come on, guys, really?” response from the Street as investors hope againsthope that the trouble gets sorted out soon. Evenif the current stalemate is resolved quickly, markets are actually telling ussomething important and surprising—that the foundations of our recovery areweak. Equities have remained relatively strong because the Federal Reserve isartificially keeping them up by continuing its$85 billion a month program ofasset buying. Their reasons for doing so are understandable — the Fed has keptthe money spigots on, risking market bubbles, in large part because it’s afraidof “fiscal headwinds,” i.e. growth-destroying Beltway ridiculousness. BenBernanke may not have any influence on whether Congress can agree to fund thegovernment or raise the debt ceiling, but at least he figures he can help keepstock and home prices higher than they might otherwise be. Other countries,like Japan,have followed suit, with their own massive quantitative easing program, one ofthe reasons that business confidence is up. 【270】 [Time5] Theproblem is that the cycle of easing and rising stock prices is slowly breakingdown. People simply aren’t buying into the sugar high of this kind of monetarypolicy anymore, or at least not to the extent that they used to. For proof,look at the gap between stock prices and Galluppoll economic confidence numbers. Then there’s the Fed’s decision not to “taper”off its massive spending spree a couple of weeks ago which only buoyed stocksfor a day—it used to keep them up for weeks or even months on end. But each newround of “quantitative easing” does less to goose the market than the roundbefore. “It all shows what a weak and narrow recovery we are in,” says behavioraleconomist Peter Atwater. Italso shows the schizophrenic nature of our economy. As long as Congress remainsdysfunctional, the Fed has to play the role of economic stimulator of lastresort, and banks, hedge funds and big money managers have to play along. As Atwater points out, theyare now using record levels of debt and leverage to buy up stocks, since theFed’s money dump keeps interest rates so low. (I’m reminded of former CitigroupCEO Chuck Prince’s infamous line that “as long as the music is playing, you’vegot to getup and dance.”) Buta recovery that’s felt mainly in the financial markets, and is built on theshaky foundations of debt, rather than real job and income growth, is not thesort that you want. 【255】 Source:TINE http://business.time.com/2013/10/01/foroohar-the-government-is-down-so-why-arent-stocks/
Article 4 The Economic Consequences of the Government Shutdown
【Warm Up】
Republicansare shutting the government down again? Didn't they learn anything from me?(Reuters) Deviancycan't be defined much further down. Notwhen it's a semi-relief that House Republicans are "only" holding thebudget, and not the debt ceiling, hostage in their bid to subvert thedemocratic process. (Though let's give the second one a few more weeks beforewe start celebrating). But any kind of relief over a government shutdowninstead of a government debt default, while understandable, is a bit silly.It's true that the latter is much, much more damaging than the former, butthat's like saying high blood pressure isn't as bad as a heart attack. Well,yes. But they're both still bad! Theeconomic consequences of the shutdown probably won't be large, but they mightbe larger than we think. Here's what we know, and what we don't know yet. [Time6] --Furloughs. The shutdown's direct effect on the economy comes from the federalgovernment's lost work-hours. Right now, about 800,000 of the 4.1 millionfederal workers have been sent home. These "non-essential" workerfurloughs will reduce fourth quarter GDP by about 0.15 to 0.2 percentage pointsfor every week the shutdown lasts, according to Morgan Stanley and GoldmanSachs economists. The economy should bounce back an equal amount the followingquarter, but, as Macroeconomic Advisers points out, that partly depends onwhether furloughed workers get back pay. That's what happened after the 1995and 1996 shutdowns, but it's something Congress has to approve. And, well,House Republicans might not be so enthusiastic about retroactively payingfederal workers for not working this time around. In that case, the shutdown'smodest drag on overall household spending would persist a bit. --Confidence. The shutdown's indirect, and harder to quantify, effect on theeconomy comes from how much it scares households. It's particularly hard toquantify, because the shutdown fight is bleeding into the debt ceiling fight,so it isn't exactly clear what it is that's scaring households. But they arelooking scared. As you can see in the chart below, Gallup's Economic Confidence Index took a dipjust when a shutdown seemed possible. It will presumably dip even more nextweek now that the shutdown is a reality. Frightenedhouseholds, of course, are households that don't spend. At least not as much.So just like the debt ceiling crisis two years ago, the shutdown (and perhapsanother debt ceiling crisis!) could dent consumer confidence enough to dentgrowth for months. Butwhat is this economic damage even for?(And, as my colleague Jordan Weissmannreminds us, moral damage too). House Republicans wish they hadn't lost the 2008election, and Obama care didn't exist. Or at least that the Supreme Courthadn't upheld Obama care's constitutionality. And they wish that, failing thattoo, they hadn't lost the2012 election, and could have repealed Obama care.There is no election to be won or lost year, so the best they can do this monthis threaten to blow up the world economy if they don't get their way. Theshutdown isn't anywhere near as big a threat as the debt ceiling, but doesn'tmean there isn't real harm from it. There is. Howabout we end this pointless harm? 【395】 Source:yahoo finance http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economic-consequences-government-shutdown-195600641.html;_ylt=A2KJjamSR05SJGwAKoeTmYlQ
Part III: Obstacle Article 5 No Movement in Shutdown Standoff [Paraphrase7] WASHINGTON—President Barack Obama and congressional leaders met Wednesday for thefirst time since the federal government shut down, emerging more than an hourlater with no evidence of progress toward resolving their impasse over healthcare and government spending. Withhundreds of thousands of federal workers on furlough for a second day,congressional officials of both parties left the White House meetingpessimistic about prospects for a speedy end to the deadlock. They made clearthat neither side had made concessions. Aftera meeting between President Obama and congressional leaders to discuss thecurrent government shutdown on Wednesday, House Speaker John Boehner brieflyjoined a press conference to say that the President will not negotiate. HouseSpeaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) said after the meeting that Republicanscontinue to want changes to the new federal health law, the Affordable CareAct. Democrats have said they won't agree to changes to the law as a conditionof reopening the government. "Thepresident reiterated one more time tonight that he will not negotiate,"said Mr. Boehner. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) called themeeting "cordial but unproductive'' and said Mr. Obama "had littleinterest in negotiating a solution." AFP/GettyImages Speaker of the House John Boehner speaks to the media following ameeting with President Barack Obama at the White House on Wednesday. Mr.Obama has said he is willing to compromise on a wide-ranging budget deal—butonly after Republicans take two steps: reopening the government withoutchanging the health law, and raising the nation's borrowing limit. After theWhite House meeting, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) repeated thatDemocrats stood firm against changing the health law. "Weare locked in tight on Obama care," Mr. Reid said. "We just want toopen the government." Federalagencies suspended a vast range of activities and furloughed more than 800,000nonessential workers after lawmakers failed to pass funding legislation by amidnight Monday deadline, leaving much of the government without money for thenew fiscal year. The White House on Wednesday said the president would shorten histrip this week to Asia, canceling stops in Malaysiaand the Philippines,because furloughs had made it impossible to get personnel in place. FormerSenator Byron Dorgan, D. North Dakota, joins the News Hub with insights fromhis firsthand experience with the last government shutdown. Plus, will centristHouse Republicans end the stalemate? Photo: AP Otherripples began to appear: United Technologies Corp., a major defense contractor,said it would furlough nearly 2,000 workers if the shutdown lasted into next weekand 2,000 more if it continued through the entire week. Financialmarkets generally have remained unperturbed by the shutdown, but businessleaders said they were anxious about the growing prospect that the battle wouldmake it harder to resolve a second and more serious dispute over the need toraise the debt limit. The Treasury says the debt ceiling must be raised thismonth in order for it to pay all of the government's obligations. Topfinancial-industry leaders met with Mr. Obama and his economic team at theWhite House and warned that a protracted battle over the nation's ability topay its bills would have serious economic ramifications. "There'sprecedent for a government shutdown. There's no precedent for default,"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein said after emergingfrom an hour-long meeting with Mr. Obama. "We're the most importanteconomy in the world.… Payments have to go out to people." Thereis no sign yet that pressure from business leaders or markets is pushinglawmakers to compromise. Mr. Boehner, however, is facing pressure from a smallbut growing faction of GOP lawmakers who are fed up with the standoff. Theycould urge Mr. Boehner to end the stalemate by holding a vote to extendgovernment funding without changing the health law, or to scale back thechanges the GOP is demanding. Agroup of Republicans uncomfortable with Mr. Boehner's strategy met with himWednesday. "We're looking for ways to break the stalemate and get thegovernment back open as quickly as possible," said Rep. Michael Grimm (R.,N.Y.), who was in the group. "We're trying to have cooler mindsprevail." RepublicanHouse leaders see the bill to reopen the government—which would extend spendingat current levels for a mere six weeks or so—as one of their few sources of leverageto extract policy changes from the president. Mr. Obama and fellow Democratsare especially determined to resist GOP demands that they believe could thenhamstring the government each time it faces a budget or debt-ceiling deadline. Don'texpect the government shutdown to end soon, was the message Tuesday from SenateRepublican leaders and Democratic aides. Also, lurking behind the shutdown aretwo starkly different views of how Americans see the health-care law. Neil Kingdiscusses. Photo: Getty Images. Park rangers began turning visitors away from Mesa Verde National Park as the federalgovernment shutdown forced the U.S. Park Service to close the national parksystem. WSJ's Tom Vigliotta reports. "Ifwe get in the habit where a few folks, an extremist wing of one party—whetherit's Democrat or Republican—are allowed to extort concessions based on a threatof undermining the full faith and credit of the United States, then anypresident who comes after me—not just me—will find themselves unable to governeffectively," Mr. Obama said on CNBC. Atthe same time, Mr. Obama looked ahead in the interview to budget talks,repeating his position that he would accept abroad budget deal without tax rateincreases that Republicans are sure to oppose. "Ithink it is possible for us to make sure that we are not increasing theincome-tax rate," Mr. Obama said, adding that closing tax loopholes wouldbe needed to pay for spending on infrastructure. The White House would alsolike any budget deal to scale back the bite to many federal programs of theacross-the-board spending cuts known as the sequester. Republicans want changesto entitlement programs, among other provisions. OnCapitol Hill, the House passed measures extending funding for national parksand the National Institutes of Health, part of a strategy by House Republicanleaders to blunt the effect of the shutdown on discrete but popular parts ofthe government. "We hope that our Democratic colleagues will stop with thegames and join us in trying to relieve the pain that is being inflicted onfederal employees and on the people of this country," said House MajorityLeader Eric Cantor (R., Va.). Democratssaid the bills were distractions from the main task of reopening the entiregovernment. They said Mr. Boehner could end the impasse by bringing forward abill to extend government funding that doesn't attempt to scale back the healthlaw. 【1135】 Source：yahoo finance http://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-movement-shutdown-standoff-013900116.html;_ylt=A2KJjamSR05SJGwAK4eTmYlQ | 
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