Argument 76求拍

616achilles

Argument76

The following appeared in a newsletteroffering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents toa recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containingfats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores.Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries arehigh in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatlyand company profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairystockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock inthis company."

Writea response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered inorder to decide whether the advice and the argument on which it is based arereasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help toevaluate the advice.

In this argument, a conclusion was drawnthat Old Dairy stockholders should sell their shares, and other investors shouldn’tpurchase stock in this company. To illustrate this conclusion, the authorclaims a result of a survey that indicated people’s desire to reduce theirintake of fat and cholesterol. The author also points the company's sales arelikely to diminish greatly and company profits will decrease. Although at firstglance it may seem superficially persuasive and reasonable, close scrutiny revealsthe conclusion is unreliable.

To begin with, the survey must be shown tobe convincing before I can accept any conclusion that the author arrives atbased on it. The author doesn’t tell the age groups of the participators.Although over eighty percent of the respondents of the survey have the desire forlow fats and cholesterol, it is possible that most of them are the olds and thefat men, so it is not strange that they refuse the food with high fat and cholesterol.Besides, the author doesn’t give the content the questionnaire and the way itwas conducted.

Secondly, the author claims that the company'ssales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will decrease. The implicationthe author hints here is that the companies’ sales and profits are mainlydetermined by its food in high fats and cholesterol. There is no guarantee thatit is the case. It is possible that nowadays many low fat foods abound in manystores also come from the Old Dairy and during the period the price and salesof low-fat foods have been increasing drastically, so we cannot decline the potentialprofits. The author’s reasoning is definitely no comprehensive unless he candemonstrate other possible scenarios unlikely.

Finally, although we concede that theresult of the survey is available, the company's sales are likely to diminishgreatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. It is not necessary that OldDairy stockholders should sell their shares, and other investors shouldn’t purchasestock in this company. Selling their profits may cause the lost of reputation,which cannot make them go further. Moreover, we just see the current situationof the market, but we cannot predict what it will be in the further. It is likelythat the low-fat foods will be proven detrimental to health, and the food inhigh fat and cholesterol can attain attraction again. To reach the cited conclusion,the author must explain why none of them is able to sustain.

As it stands, the author’s argumentmentioned above relies on doubtful evidence and unsound reasoning. Regardlessof whom the author is, many aspects of the conclusion have been ignored andunderrated. To better evaluate the argument, the author should reason morelogically, cite some convincing evidence and take every possible considerationinto account.

普渡哥

Finally, although we concede that the result of the survey is available, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease.

这句话的出发点我没看懂。我觉得用may比 are likely 和will no doubt 合适。