argument美国东北部取暖

proheart

24次60/145/146/150/154/155
(8)
The following appeared in a letter from a firm providinginvestment advice to a client."Homes in the northeastern United States, wherewinters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel forheating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-averagetemperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict thatthis weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, manynew homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of thesedevelopments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommendinvestment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operationsis the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in whichyou discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how theevidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
在冬季非常寒冷的美国东北部的房屋，一直都使用传统的油料作为采暖的主要燃料。去年该地区经历了90天低于往年平均气温的严寒，并且气象预测家们预测这种天气会持续未来数年。而且，去年本地建造了很多的房屋。按此趋势，我们预测对于油料的需求将会增加. 所以我们建议对CI公司投资，该公司的主要业务之一就是家用采暖油料的零售。
1.     信息不完整：作者仅仅说经历了90天的低于正常气温，但是并没有说明温差到底有多大。对于一定范围内的气温降低，通常情况下供暖公司不会增加供暖强度。在这种情况下，气温虽然低了，不足以造成取暖的增加。另外，气温的变化是瞬息万变很难预测的，专家的推测也不一定准确。
There are not completeinformation about the low temperature, which the author only says the regionexperienced 90 days below-average temperatures. However, the range of thetemperature is not mentioned in the survey. The heating company will notincrease the intensity of the heating if the temperature is in a smallfluctuation range, in which condition there needs no more home heating oil eventhough the temperature is low. In addition, it is hard to forecast the rapidlychanging temperature, so the prediction of the experts may not be accurate.
2.     信息不完整：很多的住宅新建起来，不见得很多人都会立刻搬进去居住，可能是房子的质量不好，也可能是人们的工资负担不起那里昂贵的房价> 又或者交通不便利，环境不好等。即使很多人住进新房子，但是新房子采用什么样的取暖措施？传统上home使用oil作为主要的采暖方式，但是随着科技水平的提高，现在新建的住房都是采用新型能源集中为居民供暖。那么oil的使用量并不会因此而增加。
The information of thenew houses is incomplete as well. Though there are many new homes built in theregion, it does not mean that people will live in the homes soon. The reasonsmay be diverse, such as the poor quality of the house, the high price of thebuilding, or the awful circumstance of the community. Even though people willlive in these houses soon, which heating method will be used in the new homes? Traditionally,home heating oil is the common way in the communities during cold weather, butas the technology developing, the new homes may choose new type energy toheating the housing. Then, the using of the oil will not increase in the region.
3.     信息不完整：这个公司是零售的，而那里的小区的oil都是承包给大的集团公司，他们这样的小公司可能没有市场。
The major businessoperations of the company in the material are the retail sail of the homeheating oil, while the oil provider may be the large group company in theregion, where the small firm like CI may not have the market and have enoughcompetive power to compare with them.

竹林中人

你写提纲还是？建议成文吧

proheart

This argument concludes that the region of the northeastern United States will use more home heating oil because of the new house building and the prediction that cold weather will continue according to the experience of a long cold winter during last year. For this reason, the arguer suggests to invest CI which is a retail sale of home heating oil. However, its author fails to provide sufficient evidence to permit a proper evaluation of the argument's reasoning. Each point of deficiency is discussed separately below.

One of the argument's deficiencies is that there are not complete information about the low temperature, which the author only says the region experienced ninety days below-average temperatures. However, the range of the temperature is not mentioned in the argument. So the heating company will not increase the intensity of the heating if the temperature is in a small fluctuation range, in which condition it needs no extra home heating oil even though the temperature is low. In addition, it is hard to forecast the rapidly changing temperature, so the prediction of the experts may not be accurate. So, it would be useful to know the range of temperature and it would be helpful to obtain information about the accuracy of the prediction.

Another weakness of the argument is that it provides insufficiency information of the new houses. Though there are many new homes built in the region, it does not mean that counterpart many numbers of people will live in the homes soon for diverse of reasons such as  the poor quality of the house, the high price of the building, and the awful environment of the community, and so on. Even though people will live in these houses quickly, which heating method will be used in the new buildings? Traditionally, home heating oil is the common way in the communities during cold winter, but as the technology developing, the new homes may choose new type energy to heat the housing. Then, the using of the oil will not increase in the region and even decrease. In any event, more information about the new building homes is needed in order to determine the influence on the usage of the heating oil.

Yet another of the editorial's shortcomings has to do with the CI, which would require detailed information about the business condition of the company. The arguer only provides the information that the major business operations of CI is the retail sale of home heating oil, however, we do not know whether this company is a small firm or a huge group company. Because if it is small, at the same time, the main providers of the heating oil in that region are the large group company, then CI may not have the market and have enough competitive power to compete with them, let alone to say gain benefit by investing it.

In veiw of the above, it can be said that the conclusion presented in the argument sounds unconvincing due to lack of substantial evidence as the range of the changing temperature in the region, the specific condition of the new houses and complete information of CI which can support the conclusion of the arguer. (533words)

竹林中人

ＬＺ的作文，写的很充分，没挑出什么毛病，加油