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In the nation of Partoria, large trucks currently account for 6 percent of miles driven on Partoria’s roads but are involved in 12 percent of all highway fatalities. The very largest trucks—those with three trailers—had less than a third of the accident rate of single- and double-trailer trucks. Clearly, therefore, one way for Partoria to reduce highway deaths would be to require shippers to increase their use of triple-trailer trucks.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?
• No matter what changes Partoria makes in the
regulation of trucking, it will have to keep some smaller
roads off-limits to all large trucks.
• So far only the best, most experienced drivers for
Partorian trucking companies have been driving triple-
trailer trucks.
• Very few fatal collisions involving trucks in Partoria are
collisions between two trucks.
• In Partoria, the safety record of the trucking industry as
a whole has improved slightly over the past ten years.
• In Partoria, the maximum legal payload of a triple-
trailer truck is less than three times the maximum legal payload of the largest of the single-trailer trucks.
情景:常识是不对的,最大的卡车反而是最安全的。数据表明,三个车厢的卡 车在事故率上反而比一个或者两个车厢的卡车更低,因此,为了减少事故率, 还是用三个车厢的卡车吧。
推理:推理文段的前提中给出了一组统计关联的变量,即,The very largest trucks—those with three trailers—had less than a third of the accident rate of single- and double-trailer trucks. 结论中两者的因果关系是用“目标—方案”来体现的。
前提:“三个车厢的卡车”和“事故率更低”之间存在正相关关系 结论:为了让事故率更低,用三个车厢的卡车吧。
答案选项要么同时提及“三个车厢的卡车”和“事故率更低”,要么给“事故率更 低”另外一个原因。
选项分析:
• 无论Partoria对卡车的限制如何变化,Partoria仍然会让一些比较小的路 不能通过大型卡车。本选项讨论的是Paroria的性质,不能评估推理文 段。
• Correct. 至今,都是最有经验的司机来驾驶三厢卡车。本选项给出三厢 卡车事故率低潜在可能的原因,即,“司机经验丰富导致事故率低”,属 于CQ4:独立第三因素。可以削弱推理文段。
• 很少的事故是在两个卡车之间发生的。本选项讨论的是事故发生的原 理。
• 卡车工业在Partoria的安全记录在过去的十年中上升了。本选项讨论的 是卡车工业整体的情况,属于前提中提及的原理。
• 在Partoria,三厢卡车最大的合法运载量小于单厢卡车最大运载量的三 倍。本选项属于卡车载货的原理,没有提及因果。
好像是这道题。 |
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