2.25坐稳狗

delfinq

题目：B国五年前举行了一次国际性的足球比赛，三年后国家的旅游人数有了大幅增加。所以想再办一场国际性的体育赛事，以此来提高旅游人数并且促进经济增长。
攻击点：
（1）旅游人数上升不一定是因为足球比赛，可能有其他原因：国家发展，知名度提高，世界人民生活水平提高等等；
（2）举办国际性体育赛事不一定能带来增长，举办国际赛事支出非常大，比赛场馆，比赛人员安排，宣传等等，但是收入却很难估计，很可能造成入不敷出；
（3）举办其他赛事不一定能够能和足球赛事有一样的效果，不能简单类比。
放一个粗略整合的模板 结合了CD和学姐的感谢大神们资料~
不知道为啥上传不了附件...赶时间就直接文本放这里了哦~

In this argument the author reaches theconclusion that~~~（主题内容）Several reasons are offered to support this argument. First ofall, the author cites that… In addition, the author points out that… At the first glance, the author’s argumentappears to be somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals that theargument omits some important concerns that must be addressed to substantiatethe argument.

（As we skim through the argument wemight find the conclusion somewhat appealing. After a quick but carefulanalysis, we can easily identify several logical flaws that render the author’sline of reasoning questionable.）

     Insummary, the author’s conclusion that ~~~ is seriously undermined by thenumerous flaws in his reasoning identified above. If the author could providecredible evidence about ~~~ , eliminate other factors that may result in~~~, ortake into account other issues discussed above, the argument would have beenmore thorough and convincing.

To begin with, the author readily assumes that…However, noevidence has been given to support this assumption. Perhaps….. Or perhaps…..It is doubtful that proposal will work out unless moreconvincing evidence is offered.

Second, the author bases the conclusion on the assumptionthat….. But more factors need to be taken into consideration. It’s highlypossible that…It’s also possible that…Therefore/as a result, unless all thefactors relevant to… are considered and ruled out, the author cannot justifythe conclusion/recommendation.

Moreover, the author assumes that…. Nevertheless, no sufficientevidence has been provided to guarantee that the proposal will achieve theexpected result…….. Without eliminating and ruling out all other possibilities,it is unfair to say the proposal is reasonable.

1、无因果型（基本就是找他因）：Thisargument is a classic instance of "after this, therefore because ofthis" reasoning. The only evidence put forward to support the claim thatXX is the cause of YY is that XX preceded YY. (当出现根据先后发生就断定是因果关系的错误时) /

In the argument, the only evidence putforward to support the claim that XX is the cause of YY is that (XX happenedwhen YY happened)/ (XX used to cause YY) (根据同时发生、过去发生来断定因果关系的错误)

以上都可以接后面的：However, this alone does not constitute the causal claim inquestion. (Although the trend/tendency cited in the study has remained stablefor the past 10 years, there is no guarantee that it/the same trend willcontinue.) Actually，the speaker overlooks other factorsthat might also contribute to the result. (The author overlooks the changes ofenvironment where XX and YY happen)

具体举例：For instance, …may…/ it is entirely possible that…( In addition,…may…/perhaps that…)

In short, without considering and rulingout all of these and other possibilities, the credibility of the arguer’sconclusion is really open to doubt for the reason that each of thepossibilities, if true, would serve to undermine the arguer’s conclusion.

2、无端假设（还是找其他可能）Mostconspicuously, the argument rests on the gratuitous assumption that~~~（假设内容） The author, however, cite no evidence to support thisassumption. This assumption is dubious in two aspects. For one thing, it’sentirely possible that~~~For another, even it is true that~~~the mere fact~~~does not necessary indicate that ~~~ Lacking this assumption, theexpectation of ~~~ to ~~~is entirely unfounded.

3、错误类比（找不同点）Theargument is unconvincing also because it is based on a false analogy.Differences between the ~~~ clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making ithighly doubtful to apply facts drawn from ~~~ to ~~~. For example, (例如：problems of ~~~all affect the food industry but are virtuallyabsent in the~~) Therefore, without sufficient information showing that most oreven all of the conditions in A and B is similar or the same, the argument isdoubtful.

4、错误调查（调查的样本数、多样性存在问题）A threshold problem with this argument involves a researchitself. The number of the participants, XX, might be just an insufficientlysmall sample which cannot represent ~~ Also, the sample might be notnecessarily representative of (所有群体), for ~~ Unless it can be shownthat the sample is typical of all general group, it’s unwarranted to draw anyconclusion at all.

5、情况变化（赖以存在的条件发生变化）Theargument is based on the poor assumption that all conditions have remainedunchanged since~~~(时间)(at different time or differentlocations). Apparently, the author fails to take into account that ~~~mighthave changed. Without this consideration, it’s unsounded to conclude that~~~

6、必要非充分（找其他的因素、选择）Theauthor unfairly assumes that~~~and~~~are mutually exclusive alternatives andthere is no room for a middle ground. However, A and B might not be the onlyoptions and there might be other better alternatives such as ~~~and ~~~ and soon. Therefore, this argument is unwarranted without ruling out other choices.

7、入不敷出（某一措施的收益可能小于花费）A will not possibly earn a substantial profit by~~~ while it isentirely possible that the cost of ~~~is prohibitively high, even preventing~~~ from making a profit/resulting in heavy financial burden. In short, withoutweighing revenue/gains against expenses the author’s notion is premature atbest.

sorry考完有点事情放晚啦希望还有帮助~加油！！！

seujy66

感谢分享！楼主有悦读狗吗？