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楼主 |
发表于 2012-12-19 17:14:29
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LZ 帮忙看看吧谢谢了 补充一下段意和题目好嘛?? 1.文章脉络: 金融市场的理论在生活中的表现→解释生活中的那个表现→在金融市场中的表现→进一步解释
2.段落大意: P1:金融市场在生活模型中的相关性体现。 第一句是专家认为financial market的理论在其他context model里有所体现。举了一个伦敦桥(London bridge)的例子,London bridge建成后,行人多,超过了预期,人们走过去的时候,桥就开始响,于是政府关闭了什么道,重新搞了下,但还是有这个问题。 P2:解释上述这种现象出现的原因。 有学者说是桥没修好,反驳这些学者的观点并解释:修建伦敦桥的人不是没有考虑到wind的因素,而是没有考虑到人们在桥上的动作的因素/行人对桥的承受力的影响。当行人太多的时候,桥开始轻微地摇动,桥上的人就开始担心,于是他们走路的幅度就加大/就一起大步向前走(考点),所有人就都这样,然后桥就开始剧烈摇动,桥越摇动,上面的人越害怕,走路的步伐就越快,桥就更加摇动,由此造成loop。伦敦桥的这种现象其实就是共振引起的。 P3:上述现象在金融市场中的表现。 在financial market中,上述现象刚好和在economic crisis中大经纪人的示范作用差不多。economic crisis时,一有风吹草动,big company 还是big buyers就会停手不买, cash从市场中消失,于是市场波动了,从而更加加剧了crisis。/大经纪人做了什么事,于是其他普通民众也跟风,从而导致市场波动。 P4:进一步解释。 虽然很多原来理论认为是其他因素是造成了市场波动,但更可怕且不可修补的解释(即第三段所说的理论):个体大的动作对群体动作的影响。虽然在经济危机中这种行为对个人是对的。但是集体就是造成问题,没有一种reform可以真正改变说没什么,这被叫做rational irrationally(考古:考点)
3.题目: Q1. London bridge的倒塌(?)是因为?/问造桥者没有考虑什么因素? 【考古狗主】倒塌是由于设计师忽略了行人对桥的承受力的影响。 【本月狗主】e.行人traffic的影响。(V25)
Q2. 当经济出现波动时,会有什么样的现象出现? 【考古狗主】每人理智地反应结果是意外地拿出同样的举措。
Q3.那个大桥上的行人遇到桥体摇晃时做出了怎样的理智的反应? /行人采取什么行为? 选adjust。。。to keep balance(V25)
Q4. 相比于文中最后一段的描述,以下哪项是london bridge对应的类比。 答案大致意思反正是:一个人在桥上走是没事的,很多人一起走就不一样了。
1.备注: 据本月狗主回忆:第四段(几乎一样的)和前面两段貌似是的,但是第三段貌似不是,没有讲到2007房贷那些事,说得比较泛,没那么专业好像。 本月狗主另一反应:再看了一下JJ里的参考原文,应该不是原文,也没有哪一段像原文,但主要意思比较接近。
参考原文(雪菲修改中文翻译一、二、四段): Some commentators suspected the bridge’s foundations, others an unusual air pattern. The real problem was that the designers of the bridge had not taken into account how the footway would react to all the pedestrians walking on it. When a person walks, lifting and dropping each foot in turn, he or she produces a slight sideways force. If hundreds of people are walking in a confined space, and some happen to walk in step, they can generate enough lateral momentum to move a footbridge just a little. Once the footway starts swaying, however subtly, more and more pedestrians adjust their gait to get comfortable, stepping to and fro in synch. As a positive feedback loop develops between the bridge’s swing and the pedestrians’ stride, the sideways forces can increase dramatically and the bridge can lurch violently. The investigating engineers termed this process “synchronous lateral excitation”. 一些评论员怀疑这座桥的根基,另一些怀疑不正常的空气流型。真正的问题是,桥的设计者没有考虑相对如何面对所有的行人步行。当一个人行走,依次抬起和落下每只脚的时候,他或她产生了一种轻微的横向力。如果有成百上千的人走在一个有限空间,或一些人正巧步调一致,他们可以产生足够的侧向动量,使人行桥变化一点点。一旦栈道开始隐隐约约地摇晃,越来越多的行人为了舒适调整步态,来回同步。作为桥摇动和行人步伐的正反馈循环,小路的侧身力量可以大幅上升,导致桥的剧烈突然倾斜。这个过程称为调查工程师“同步侧向激发 ”。 Most of the time, financial markets are pretty calm, trading is orderly, and participants can buy and sell in large quantities. Whenever a crisis hits, however, the biggest players—banks, investment banks, hedge funds(对冲基金)—rush to reduce their exposure, buyers disappear, and liquidity dries up. Where previously there were diverse views, now there is unanimity: everybody’s moving in lockstep. “The pedestrians on the bridge are like banks adjusting their stance and the movements of the bridge itself are like price changes,” Shin wrote. And the process is self-reinforcing: once liquidity falls below a certain threshold, “all the elements that formed a virtuous circle to promote stability now will conspire to undermine it. ” The financial markets can become highly unstable. 大多数时候,金融市场是相当平静,交易是有序,参加者的买卖数量大。但是,当一个金融危机来临,最大的players-banks、投资银行、对冲基金-rush to减少露面, 买家消失,资金流动枯竭。之前不一致的看法现在一致了:每个人的步伐一致。“桥上的行人就像银行重新调整他们的立场,而桥自身的变化就像价格变化“Shin写道。自我增强的工艺:一旦流动资金低于某个特定的临界值,“所有形成了良性循环促进稳定性的元素, 现在将共谋破坏这个稳定性。“金融市场可以变得非常不稳定。 This is essentially what happened in the lead-up to the Great Crunch. The trigger was, of course, the market for subprime-mortgage bonds—bonds backed by the monthly payments from pools of loans that had been made to poor and middle-income home buyers. In August, 2007, with house prices falling and mortgage delinquencies rising, the market for subprime securities froze. By itself, this shouldn’t have caused too many problems: the entire stock of outstanding subprime mortgages was about a trillion dollars, a figure dwarfed by nearly twelve trillion dollars in total outstanding mortgages, not to mention the eighteen-trillion-dollar value of the stock market. But then banks, which couldn’t estimate how much exposure other firms had to losses, started to pull back credit lines and hoard their capital—and they did so en masse, confirming Shin’s point about the market imposing uniformity. An immediate collapse was averted when the European Central Bank and the Fed announced that they would pump more money into the financial system. Still, the global economic crisis didn’t ease up until early this year, and by then governments had committed an estimated nine trillion dollars to propping up the system. 这是本质上发生了什么大危机的旅程。触发,当然,市场对次级抵押贷款的支持下bonds-bonds每月付款贷款,从水池曾对贫穷和中等收入家庭的买家。2007年8月,房价下跌和抵押拖欠上升,市场对次级证券一下子僵住了。就其本身而言,这不会造成太多的问题:整个股票优秀的次级抵押贷款大约是一万亿美元,这个数字几乎相形见绌一共十二万亿美元杰出的抵押贷款,更不用说十八万亿美元价值的股票市场。但后来银行,而无法估计暴露多少其他公司不得不损失,开始紧缩信贷计划和囤积资金,他们这么做是他们成群结队,确认心的观点关于市场实施的一致性。立即崩溃是避免当欧洲中央银行,美联储宣布他们将泵更多的资金在金融系统。然而,全球经济危机没有缓解直到今年早些时候,政府就犯了,估计有九万亿美元来支撑系统。 A number of explanations have been proposed for the great boom and bust, most of which focus on greed, overconfidence, and downright stupidity on the part of mortgage lenders, investment bankers, and Wall Street C.E.O.s. If this were all there was to it, we could rest more comfortably: greed can be controlled, with some difficulty, admittedly; overconfidence gets punctured; even stupid people can be educated. Unfortunately, the real causes of the crisis are much scarier and less amenable to reform: they have to do with the inner logic of an economy like ours. The root problem is what might be termed “rational irrationality”—behavior that, on the individual level, is perfectly reasonable but that, when aggregated in the marketplace, produces calamity. 一些被提出的解释的繁荣与萧条,其中大部分集中在贪婪、过度自信,彻头彻尾的愚蠢的部分抵押贷款、投资银行家、和华尔街的C.E.O.s。如果这都有,可以休息的时间更舒适:贪婪是可以控制的特性, 诚然有些困难;过度自信会刺破,甚至愚蠢的人可以接受教育。不幸的是,金融危机的真正原因比较可怕,而且不易用改革来控制:他们与内在逻辑的一种经济像我们的。根本的问题是可能被称为“理性的不合理”-在个人层面完全合理,但当聚集在商业界会产生灾难的反应。
-- by 会员 sparklelynn (2012/12/18 21:18:00)
就是这篇了~段意都差不多。 只是题不太一样,第一题考的是最后一句的高亮 |
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