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米祈

When Friedman gave hislecture in 1976, the long-run relationship between inflation and unemploymentwas still under debate. During the1960s, most economists believed that a lower average unemployment rate could besustained if one were just willing to accept a permanently higher (but stable)rate of inflation. （负相关）Friedman used hisNobel lecture to make two arguments about this inflation-unemployment tradeoff.First, he reviewed the reasons the short-run tradeoff would dissolve in thelong run. Expanding nominal demand to lower unemployment would lead to increases in money wages as firms attemptto attract additional workers. （失业率下降，员工工资就会增加）Firms would be willing to pay higher money wages if theyexpected prices for output to be higher in the future due to the expansion.Friedman assumed, however, that workers would initially perceive the rise inmoney wages to be a rise in real wages. They would do so because their"perception of prices in general" adjusts slowly, so nominal wageswould be perceived to be rising faster than prices. In response, the supply oflabor would increase, and employment and output would expand. Eventually, workers would recognize that the general level ofprices had risen and that their real wages had not actually increased, leadingto adjustments that would return the economy to its natural rate ofunemployment. （现金形式的收入下降了，在收入上会作出妥协）

Friedman's secondargument was that the Phillips Curve slope might actually be positive--higher inflation would be associatedwith higher average unemployment. （不是负相关）In the 1970s, many economies were experiencingrising inflation and unemployment simultaneously. Friedman attempted to providea tentative hypothesis for this phenomenon. In his view, higher inflation tendsto be associated with more inflation volatility and greater inflationuncertainty. This uncertainty reduces economic efficiency as contractingarrangements must adjust, imperfections in indexation systems become moreprominent, and price movements provide confused signals about the types ofrelative price changes that indicate the need for resources to shift.

The positive correlationbetween inflation and unemployment that Friedman noted was subsequentlyreplaced by a negative correlation asthe early 1980s saw disinflations accompanied by recessions. Today, mosteconomists would view inflation and unemployment movements as reflecting bothaggregate supply and aggregate demand disturbances as well as the dynamicadjustments the economy follows in response to these disturbances. When demanddisturbances dominate, inflation and unemployment will tend to be negativelycorrelated initially as, for example, an expansion lowers unemployment andraises inflation. As the economy adjusts, prices continue to increase asunemployment begins to rise again and return to its natural rate. When supplydisturbances dominate (as in the 1970s), inflation and unemployment will tendto move initially in the same direction.
The long-lived recessionof the early 1980s, followed by the rapid economic growth of the late 1980s andthe 'bust' of the early 1990s have shaped the expectations of workers,industries and households. Perhaps we have become adapted to low inflation andtemper our wage demands accordingly; maybe the 'supply-side' changes made inthe 1980s have enabled the economy to grow at a faster rate without generatingcost-push inflationary pressure; alternatively or additionally, perhaps theadvances in information technology have enabled a 'new' economy to surface, whereabove-trend growth can be coupled with low inflation and unemployment.

gwendolinecn

沙发先坐坐。谢谢！

lauren831

diaoge

言谢

moonyee5

求确认