【OG19-CR-636题】 Evaluation题求大神解答

yueyueyue666

In the past the country of Malvernia has relied heavily on imported oil. Malvernia recently implemented a program to convert heating systems from oil to natural gas. Malvernia currently produces more natural gas each year than it uses, and oil production in Malvernian oil fields is increasing at a steady pace. If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, therefore, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon. Which of the following would it be most useful to establish in evaluating the argument? A. When, if ever, will production of oil in Malvernia outstrip production of natural gas? B. Is Malvernia among the countries that rely most on imported oil? C. What proportion of Malvernia's total energy needs is met by hydroelectric, solar, and nuclear power? D. Is the amount of oil used each year in Malvernia for generating electricity and fuel for transportation increasing? E. Have any existing oil^burning heating systems in Malvernia already been converted to natural gas- burning heating syste Premise: convert heating system from oil to gas; produces more gas than it uses; oil production is increasing Conclusion: If these trends in fuel production and usage continue, Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon. OA: D 我不理解的是，原文的结论里作者已经明确了，他所说的燃料生产和使用保持趋势是他的假设。作者并没有肯定地说这些趋势一定会保持。 而正确答案评估的是事实上该趋势能不能保持。 这样的评估对作者的推理也有削弱作用吗？ 以及，该假设是出现在结论中的。如果正确答案对该假设有削弱作用，herl逻辑中说的直接削弱结论不是不能反驳推理吗？还是说我的前提和结论就找错了…… 想了很久都想不懂，求大神解答

kluivert

秒选了D，其他选项都太离谱

可仔细想想的确觉得太奇怪了 .... 这是对结论中的premise的攻击啊....

If these trends in fuel production and usage continue

没见过这样的题目，正常情况下一般这么问：If these trends in fuel production continue，xxxx
这样就可以攻击usage了...如果usage 增加，那么即便产量增加，也不能保证import会削减
usage = production + import

Malvernian reliance on foreign sources for fuel is likely to decline soon.虽然谈论的是泛指fuel，但事实是我们知道是具体在说oil,因为前提已经说gas的产量大于需求，所以只需要进口oil

个人觉得只有一种合理解释，那就是If these trends in fuel production and usage continue ...usage趋势不变，但oil需求增加，gas需求减少 .... 因为结论在探讨import问题，所以我们只关心oil的问题... oil需求增加，那意味着还需要进口

高手出来解答下

谢谢