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The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In the argument, the author concludes that a jazz club in Monroe would be a profitable enterprise. In support of this conclusion, the author claims that Monroe had no other jazz clubs. The author also points out that jazz is extremely popular in Monroe. However, close scrutiny of the argument reveals that it is unconvincing in several aspects.
First of all, popularity of jazz festival and residence of well-known jazz musicians do not necessarily indicate that jazz is popular in Monroe. Perhaps the vast majority of festival attendees are out-of-town visitors. And residence of musicians is simply because of the unique scenery of Monroe. Therefore, without ruling out any other alternative explanations for these facts, the author cannot justifiably reach his conclusion.
In the second place, the nationwide study showing a high annual spend on jazz entertainment among typical jazz fans does not necessarily apply specifically in Monroe. It is quite possible that jazz fans in Monroe spend much less money per year. Even if they spend a lot of money on jazz entertainment annually, they might use the vast of them purchasing jazz CD instead of attending jazz clubs. Thus, the nationwide study the author cites amounts to insufficient evidence that the C-Note would be profitable.
Finally, even if jazz fans in Monroe flock to the C-Note, the club would not necessarily be profitable as a result. Profitability is a function of both revenue and expense. Accordingly, it is entirely possible that the club’s construction and supporting cost might render it unprofitable in spite of its popularity. Without further information about revenue and expense, the argument's conclusion that developers can earn a profit from the C-Note is premature at best.
In sum, the argument is not well supported as it stands. To further bolster the argument, the author needs to provide clear evidence that residents of Monroe would patronize the C-Notes on a regular basis To better assert the argument, I would also need to know detailed financial projections for the C-Note to determine the likelihood that it will be profitable overall.
像这样会不会感觉模板气太重而影响分数呢？ |
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发表于 2013-2-8 00:59:34
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