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楼主: billytang1980
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一道比较困惑的题目,心里好郁闷啊!!大全2-14

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11#
发表于 2011-7-1 15:38:08 | 只看该作者
楼上解释的很直接~从05年追到11年 CD果然很博大精深呀
12#
发表于 2012-7-19 12:15:49 | 只看该作者
wear(x)    not wear(1-x)
injured (a)    0.2a    0.8a
not injured(1-a)    x-0.2a    1-x-0.8a
x-0.2a>1-x-0.8a
x>0.5-0.3a
0<a<1
x>0.2
13#
发表于 2012-7-19 12:16:31 | 只看该作者
但是我做这题目的时候脑子根本转不过来呀悲剧
14#
发表于 2013-5-15 10:37:00 | 只看该作者
billytang1980 发表于 2005-4-26 09:37
14.&nbsp; &nbsp;A recent survey of all auto accident victims in Dole County found that, of the sever ...

A recent survey of all auto accident victims in Dole County found that, of the severely injured drivers and front-seat passengers, 80 percent were not wearing seat belts at the time of their accidents. This indicates that, by wearing seat belts, drivers and front-seat passengers can greatly reduce their risk of being severely injured if they are in an auto accident.
The conclusion above is not properly drawn unless which of the following is true?
(A) Of all the drivers and front-seat passengers in the survey, more than 20 percent were wearing seat belts at the time of their accidents.
因为如果样本中的戴安全带的人少于20%,那么文中的80%就不具有说服力了


Injury without seat belts
Injury with seat belts
Total with
Total without
80
20
800
200
1:10
1:10
900
100
8:90
2:10
500
500
8:50
2:50
用黄色标记的,说明更加安全。所以当总人数中,使用安全带的人数少于20%的时候,结论不成立
(B)  Considerably more than 20 percent of drivers and front-seat passengers in Dole County always wear seat belts when traveling by car.
跟他们的习惯无关,不在调查范围之内
(C) More drivers and front-seat passengers in the survey than rear-seat passengers were very severely injured.
无关比较
(D) More than half of the drivers and front-seat passengers in the survey were not wearing seat belts at the time of their accidents.
“一半”无法证实80%的有效性(A
(E) Most of the auto accidents reported to police in Dole County do not involve any serious injury.
15#
发表于 2017-7-4 20:07:28 | 只看该作者
dean703 发表于 2009-3-24 16:24
事情是这个样的。重伤的前排人中,80%没绑安全带。所有的前排人中,有大于20%的人绑了安全带。这说明了个啥 ...

同意!               
16#
发表于 2017-7-4 20:27:00 | 只看该作者
key point是在给出同样重伤的victims中,更多的人没系安全带 能否说明安全带可以在car accident中减轻重伤的风险。 此处并不能说明,因为给出的只是同样受重伤的人中的比例, 都是受重伤,看不出来怎么reduce risk了。要证明的话需要所有victims中不系安全带的比例。
如果所有不系安全带的比例小于80%的话,纵向对比,说明越是不系安全带,越有可能受重伤。
Serious 10 8 2 20%
Total 20 15 5 40%
如果安全带没有作用的话,则系和不系发生serious injury的prob一样,但此处不系的话serious的prob变高了,所以safety belt有保护作用
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