标题: 逻辑笔记PREP08 93 这个是不是算在统计枚举类里比较贴切么？ [打印本页] 作者: 三塘木 时间: 2014-10-18 09:12 标题: 逻辑笔记PREP08 93 这个是不是算在统计枚举类里比较贴切么？ Because it was long thought that few people would watch lengthy televised political messages, most televised political advertisements, like commercial advertisements, took the form of short messages. Last year, however, one candidate produced a half-hour-long advertisement. At the beginning of the half-hour slot a substantial portion of the viewing public had tuned in to that station. Clearly, then, many more people are interested in lengthy televised political messages than was previously thought.
Which of the following, if Irue, most seriously weakens the argument?
A. The candidate who produced the half-hour-long advertisement did not win election at the polls.
B. The half-hour-long advertisement was widely publicized before it was broadcast.
C. The half-hour-long advertisement was aired during a time slot normally taken by one of the most popular prime-time shows.
D. Most short political advertisements are aired during a wide range of programs in order to reach a broad spectrum of viewers.
E. In general a regular-length television program that features debate about current political issues depends for its appeal on the personal qualities of the program's moderator.
答案很明显是C，这个我没有疑问，但是逻辑笔记里给出来的解释是说因为这个是果因类推理。我当时做的时候脑子里想的是说这个和之前的一个“以过去推将来”的统计枚举类逻辑推理很像，所以就按照统计枚举类的来推理了。原来那道题具体是什么忘了，但是逻辑我记得是“因为过去downtown 的商业区经济受挫后总能回弹回来（合集的特点），所以这次经济受挫也能回弹回来（子集），问削弱 － 这次的情况不同（子集／样本具有特殊性）”。
这道题我是这样想的：
所有的lenthy political TV ad. 包括现在的这个lenthy political TV ad.。现在这个受欢迎，所以推断出所有的也本来都会受欢迎。这里算是在用“现在推将来/过去假设”和“过去推现在”是差不多的概念，都是用一个小的样本的特点推断一个群组的特点，或者用一个群组特点来推样本的特点（但是样本并不完全和这个群组一个属性）。所以这个问如何weaken, 针对统计枚举类问题，那么就是样本具有特殊性或者样本数量不够。答案里只有B和C有涉及到样本的特征，而通过比较发现C更能seriously weaken这个argument，所以才是C。
相关因果推理：
有存在统计的相关句子one candidate produced a half-hour-long advertisement. At the beginning of the half-hour slot a substantial portion of the viewing public had tuned in to that station.
因：这个候选人的长广告和换台有正相关
果：观众喜欢长广告
大案要说正相关，或者给观众换台另外的解释
C：说了正相关----观看长广告是因为最看其他节目