题目： The following appeared in a letter from afirm providing investment advice for a client. "Most homes in the northeastern United States ,where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their majorfuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days withbelow-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weatherpattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes arebeing built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because ofthese trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommendinvestment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operationsis the retail sale of home heating oil." Write a response in which you examine thestated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how theargument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for theargument if the assumptions prove unwarranted. 提纲： 1、预测没有根据 2、证据不具有说服力 3、建议投资的公司不一定能挣钱 正文： The writer offered a proposal that his/hercompany should investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose majorbusiness operations is the retail sale of home heating oil, because he/shepredict the demand for heating oil in the northeastern United States willincrease. But this prediction is derived from a few unpersuasive evidences andthe recommendation is unfounded either. Thus, the reasoning process of thisconclusion is illogical. First of all, this recommendation is basedon a prediction that the demand of the oil for heating will increase in thefuture. However in the passage the author listed no evidence could prove theprediction directly. For example, the author provided the evidence that thenortheastern U.S. region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, whereas thisevidence cannot see that the needs of oil have increased. If the author wantsto use this evidence to prove his/her prediction, he/she should takes out thedirect proof that when temperature decreased the residents in this region usedmore oil for heating than before. Therefore, lacking of this survey, the predictfrom the author is no sense.
Moreover, the second evidence listed in thepassage are unpersuasive either. It said that with the growth of the populationin the region many new homes are being built, but this cannot prove that thedemand for oil will increased. Although oil is the traditional fuel in thisregion, this kind of fuel has the high price and it can produce more pollutionthan other fuel. So, it is greatly possible that government and people willchange the form of the fuel which will be used in new houses. In addition, theforecast of the temperature also cannot convince people, because of variousconditions, we all know that the forecast of the temperature is the leastcredible prediction. So the prediction that the demand of the oil will increaseis not convinced. At the last, the recommendation ofinvesting CI is also unbelievable. Because we cannot make sure that thiscompany could bring about profits. For example, if residents don't like thebrand even if the demand increases, they will not buy oil from it. Thus, as forthere are so many other factors can influence the profits the company will get,we cannot just invest the company only by the one reason that the needs of thegoods will increase. In conclusion, without ruling out the possibilitiesabove and making the prediction more persuasively, this recommendation will notbe effective.作者: 普渡哥 时间: 2013-1-17 10:08
有进步，结尾可以好好写写。