LZ麻烦看看飓风那个和下午相似度如何~谢谢！！
The recent upsurge in the number of major Atlantic hurricanes may be the rule and not the exception, a new report suggests. The findings of this and other studies call into question recent assertions that global warming is behind the burst in hurricane activity seen since the mid-90s.
Between 1995 and 2005, an average of 4.1 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) were spawned over the Atlantic each year. But in the three decades before that, only 1.5 major hurricanes formed each year, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records.
Some scientists have attributed the burst in hurricane activity over the past decade to rising sea surface temperatures caused by global warming, as warm waters can feed a growing storm.
Others have connected the rise to weaker wind shear, which lops off the top of a developing storm and prevents it from intensifying. (El Niño conditions over the Pacific Ocean are believed to have increased wind shear in 2006, preventing the development of storms and busting that season’s forecast.)
With both of these factors influencing a hurricane’s development, the big question becomes which one will win out in a warming world?
Corals and sediment cores
To answer that question, scientists like to look at hurricane activity in the past, which can tell them whether or not recent activity is an abnormal spike in the record. But reliable observations of hurricane activity over the Atlantic only go back to 1944, so scientists have to turn to other indicators.
One team of scientists examined Caribbean corals and the abundances of a particular plankton to see how hurricane activity, which affects both groups, changed over the past 270 years.
Some corals have the ability to bioluminesce, or produce and emit light on their own. As corals grow, they exhibit features called banding that can reflect changes in the intensity of this luminescence. The intensity is affected by the amount of precipitation in the area, which in turn is influenced by wind shear—the higher the wind shear, the less precipitation.
The abundance of the plankton species Globigerina bulloides is also affected by wind shear, as stronger winds enhance ocean upwelling, providing the critters with more nutrients.
The researchers compiled data of these coral proxies, or stand-ins, for direct hurricane data, and reconstructed wind shear and sea surface temperature records for the past 270 years, giving them an idea of what hurricane activity might have been like.
They found that the downward trend in the number of hurricanes from the 1940s to the 1970s was replicated by the reconstruction and is attributable to greater wind shear, which likely stifled hurricane development.
The scientists also used the reconstruction to compare the current upswing in hurricanes to past active phases and found that it was “unexceptional.”
In the future
So though sea surface temperatures have been rising with global warming over the past century, the authors of the new study, detailed in the June 7 issue of the journal Nature, say that higher wind shear won out over any fuel hurricanes would have received from the water during the lull from the 40s to the 70s.
But in the future, if wind shear decreases (which could happen if there were fewer El Niño events), and sea surface temperatures continue to rise, storms could have longer lifetimes, form more often or become more intense, the authors concluded in their paper.
Other studies, including another recent Nature study that examined sediment cores from a Puerto Rican lake, have put together these past hurricane records from proxy data and concluded that wind shear may be more important than the ocean’s temperature in influencing hurricane activity.
But these studies are limited to very local areas, said climatologist James Elsner in an editorial accompanying the new study, so their results are not necessarily applicable to the Atlantic at large.
Elsner says more records are needed to piece together the history of hurricane activity in the Atlantic and determine just which factors make hurricanes behave the way they do and which will matter most in the coming decades.
-- by 会员 zxfjacob (2012/10/22 0:31:00)
同学你看看这三道题对不对~~~~
91.【personnality| 特殊】
评论：以前娱乐记者都报道政治任务关于budget之类问题的观点，现在却报道政治家的personality。他们的政治观点才是genuine politic issues
娱乐记者：Personality会影响到他们制定budget，所以也是politicissue
记者的反驳是indicates the disagreement on blah blah blah on theterms of？
A personalities
B issues(历史上大部人同学选了这个)
C interest
Dgenuine political
Etax revenue
（by lancia：2年前我貌似做过原题，忘记是在小蓝还是哪里了。我很清楚的记得答案是和issue相关。这个题目争论的焦点也就是说general issue 与 persoality的关系，是对issue范围的争论。应该是选issue的。
by XYXB：今天也有TX问我这道题，我个人是这样理解的：P 认为personality is not a genuine political issue（即personality和genuine political issue是2个独立的集合，不相容）J认为personality is also a genuine political issue（即personality是genuine political issue的子集）所以争论之处在于genuine political issue的范围究竟有多大，是否包含personality。只是我没有搞懂的是为何答案把genuine political和issue分开处理了，我一直把它们当一个概念。so， open to discuss
by 逃惘：希望有人能找到这个原题，如果是按以上两个同学的思路，应该是选issue，因为general political是issue的修饰）
93.【专利局| 假设】
现在审批专利的都不知道专利有啥效果, 推出现在的专利没啥用.问假设
很多专利能够被申请下来是因为这个专利里面有不能轻易被这个领域的其他竞争者复制的独特技术，专利需要专家去验证它，但专利局里验证专利的这个领域里的专家不一定什么都懂，有些专利他们不懂，所以结论说有些专利并不是innovation，问assumption。
有些专利领域专家不懂的专利不会拿给那些领域外懂的人评判。（审批的结果不是请外面的专家来做的。（V36）
94.【哮喘| 假设】
有一种fever会同市产产生另外一种b,有fever的产深b的超过95%, 而有b的中产深的fever不到95%,问假设.
已知：1.over 95 percent of people who have asthma also suffer from hay fever.
2. The percentage of people suffering from hay fever who also have asthma is lower than 95 percent
答案：Asthma is much less common ailment than hay fever
【GWD变体原题】【不一样！！！】
Fact: Asthma, a bronchial condition, is much less common ailment than hay fever, an allergic inflammation of the nasal passages.
Fact: over 95 percent of people who have asthma also suffer from hay fever.
If the information given as facts above is true, which of the following must also be true?
A. Hay fever is a prerequisite for the development of asthma
B. Asthma is a prerequisite for the development of hay fever
C. Those who have neither hay fever nor asthma comprise less than 5 percent of the total population
D. The number of people who have both of these ailments is greater than the number of people who have only one of them
E. The percentage of people suffering from hay fever who also have asthma is lower than 95 percent.
-- by 会员 zkybq (2012/10/22 8:37:46)
谢谢楼主~~~请问能否帮忙补全一下surname那个题么？还有什么印象嘛？
-- by 会员 zkybq (2012/10/22 21:49:54)
一开始说叫人的surname能够拉近人与人的距离, 所以医生可以叫病人的surname. 后来又有人说, 叫病人的surname是对病人的不敬, 所以得出结论,如果叫病人的surname得到病人的许可就没问题了,问原因?
顺便问一下搂主, 我觉得在考试做逻辑时,题目都能看懂,但就是发现不了正确答案, 知道自己选的答案有些肯定错,但没办法还是选了,因为找不到能说服自己的正确答案. 你能否给我点建议? 逻辑考古基经你是如何找的?
-- by 会员 wj37044 (2012/10/22 23:25:23)
看这个帖子