标题: 三月底考 求拍求鼓励，Argu146 [打印本页] 作者: uniquechong 时间: 2012-3-25 19:00 标题: 三月底考 求拍求鼓励，Argu146 146 Most homes in the northeastern United States,where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their majorfuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days withbelow-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weatherpattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes arebeing built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because ofthese trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience anincreased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss whatspecific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how theevidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In this argument, the arguer predicts thatthis region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the nextfive years. Though it seems convincing at first glance, carefully scrutinyreveals that the arguer should provide specific evidence to strengthen theargument.
First of all, 90 days with below-normaltemperatures in the last heating season does not indicate that the winter innortheastern United States is colder than before. Perhaps, in normal heatingseason, there is more than 120 days with below-normal temperatures. In thiscase, the demand for the oil that is the major fuel for heating surelydecreased in the last year. In short, without providing the evidence that thewinter in northeastern United States was colder in the last year than thenormal years, I cannot convince on that the demand for heating oil will increase.
Secondly, even assuming that the winter wascolder in the last year, the author further assume that the new homes which arebeing built in response to recentpopulation growth will increase the demand for heating oil. Although it isentirely possible, the author provides no evidence such as the exact demand forthe new homes to substantiate this assumption. To be more exact, if the newcomers are willing to rent house rather than to buy the new homes because theydo not have enough money, the new homes will account scant evidence to supportthe increased demand for heating oil. In a word, until the author present thisassumption by more specific evidence I remain unconvinced that the demand foroil would increase.
Finally, even if the arguer can support allof the forgoing assumptions by the effective evidence, the author's assertionthat the region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during thenext five years. Though the arguer provides an evidence that climateforecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several moreyears, it is likely that the trend will continue just for 2 or 3 years and thenthe trend will reverse. Moreover, theclimate forecasters' prediction is possible wrong and we can draw any firmconclusion from it. Thus, lacking such more information about the effectivenessand validity of the climate forecasters' prediction it is difficult to assessthe merit of the author's prediction.
In sum, the author's argument is not persuasiveas it stands. To bolster the recommendation the author must provide betterevidence that the winter will be colder in the next five years. To betterassess the argument I would need to know whether the new comers are willing tobuy the new homes which are being built.