标题: 新G Argu18 求大家群拍！猛拍！ [打印本页] 作者: jdef1028 时间: 2012-2-15 23:47 标题: 新G Argu18 求大家群拍！猛拍！ 18（老G135） 题目原文： The following is a memorandum from the business manager of a television station.“Over the past year, our late-night news program has devoted increased time to national news and less time to weather and local news. During this period, most of the complaints received from viewers were concerned with our station’s coverage of weather and local news. In addition, local businesses that used to advertise during our late-night news program have canceled their advertising contracts with us. Therefore, in order to attract more viewers to our news programs and to avoid losing any further advertising revenues, we should expand our coverage of weather and local news on all our news programs. Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.”
Written by the business manager of the television station, the given memorandum propose to expand the coverage of weather and local news, to attract new viewers and increase the revenue of the advertisement as a consequence. The manager attributes the reality, that most of the complaints are about the local news and weather programme and the advertising contacts have been canceled during the year, to the smaller amount of the local news and the weather programme. While the conclusion above seems to be valid at first glance, the argument is actually unpersuasive and sounds fat-fetched after considering the follow reasons.
In the first place, the memorandum is based on the correlation between the deceased coverage of the local news and weather programme ,and both of the complaints mainly about the local news and weather programme and the advertising contacts canceled by the companies, which indicates that the former attribute to the latter. However, there is no evidence provided that known correlation, albeit likely, is the cause-and-effect relationship. While it may be true that the companies canceled the advertising contacts because of the decreasing amount of the local news and weather programme viewers, it is entirely possible that the decline of the advertisement is due to the companies' economic crisis. Moreover, unless the alternative possibilities ,such as the companies' advertising plan has been changed, have been ruled out, the relationship is still suspected.
In the second place, provided that the cause-and-effect relationship above is warranted, the cited complaints are still questionable. The word "most" in the memorandum indicates that the percentage of complaints concerning the local news and weather programme has increased. Nonetheless, the manager who just focuses on the increasing percentage, fails to account for the possibility that the total number of the complaints has decreased and the exact number of the complaints about the coverage has never changed or even decreased a little. In addition, without wide survey among all the viewers, hasty conclusion with the few complaints would weaken the persuasibility of the argument.
In the last place, even assuming that the decreasing coverage of the local news and weather programme results in the decline of the advertising contacts and the viewers, there is no evidence to substantiate the assumption that the viewers and the contacts lost would be attracted back with the expanding coverage of the weather and local news programme. The viewers, who used to get information from the television, would turn to the Internet, which provides an effective and convenient way.
In conclusion, the fact and the statistic given, although suggested,could not prove that the recommendation mentioned in the memorandum is the right method to prevent the station from the decline of the viewers and revenue. To better evaluate the statement of the manager, we need to know whether there is another alternative way to solve the given problem and approach the aim.作者: jz20000cn 时间: 2012-2-16 21:17
这篇文章逻辑很清晰，非常有条理。作者: 普渡哥 时间: 2012-2-17 11:25
the given memorandum propose to expand the coverage of weather and local news,
这句话有问题。。。作者: jdef1028 时间: 2012-2-17 12:41
memorandum改成the TV station?