标题: CD第一篇 A15 A51 A131 A133，诚心求拍^^ [打印本页] 作者: qsx4881 时间: 2012-2-10 18:52 标题: CD第一篇 A15 A51 A131 A133，诚心求拍^^ The following memorandum is from the business manager of Happy Pancake House restaurants. Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2 percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100 are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a number of customers who ask for butter do not complain when they are given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine or they use the term 'butter' to refer to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing butter and to increase profitability, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well."
A11 Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument. A51 Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation. A130 Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted. A131 Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction. A133 Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
In this argument, the manager suggests that the Happy Pancake House to substitute margarine for butter in the southeast and northeast to increase profitability. To suggest his/her suggestion, the manager refers to the Happy Pancake House restaurants in southwestern United States take the similar measure, and customers do not complain about this change. While the manager’s purpose is fine, the Happy Pancake House may not increase its profitability according to the manager’s evidence.
Building on the survey that 2 percent of customers have complained about the replacement of butter by margarine, the manager asserts 98 people of 100 are happy with the change. This is ridiculous. The manager implies that customers have only two reactions to the replacement, either compliments or happiness. Many people may keep quiet, but this does not indicate they like it. They just do not want to waste their time or make trouble. They could express their dissatisfaction in another way, do not come next time. Thus, the proportion of complained customers is more than two percent.
Additionally, the manager get the conclusion from many servers’ report that many customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine for they do not complain while they are given margarine other than their asked butter. Because we are not told the total number of the Happy Pancake House’ server, we do not sure many represents what percent. Furthermore, consumers may not complain in front of servers, there is no evidences verify they complain to other managers. Even if there are evidences certify customers do not complain about the replacement, we cannot prove customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine. They may just not care about it.
At last, the manager suggests the southeast and northeast Happy Pancake House to avoid the expense of purchasing butter which will increase profitability. The manager commits the fallacy of “false analogy”. Due to different customary, even consumers in southeast are happy with the replacement, consumers in southeast and northeast may have strong dissatisfaction. What’s more, margarine in southeast and northeast may expensive than butter. For example, all butter should import from other state while there are several margarine manufacturer in southeast and northeast. Hence, substitute margarine for butter in southeast and northeast may not increase profitability.
In conclusion, the argument exits three obvious fallacies. The argument could have been strengthened had the author: 1) provided directed evidence that consumer do not complain about the replacement, 2) certified many customers cannot distinguish butter from margarine, 3) verified the southeast and northeast have the basis for comparison. Ultimately, the Happy Pancake House in southeast and northeast should not replace butter with margarine with a more thorough analysis of its residents.
折腾了两个小时，字数总算凑的差不多了，请各位前辈老师指点迷津！
另外这几题目的题干基本一致，但是问题确不尽相同，不知道该怎么处理呀，不完全按照那个来像老G那样的写法会不会很影响分数啊？谢谢~~ 作者: lukebrehm 时间: 2012-2-11 14:19
1. Happy Pancake House to (should) substitute 2. To assert his/her suggestion, the manager refers to the Happy Pancake House restaurants in southwestern United States who took a similar measure, and states how the customers did not complain about this change. 3. While the manager’s intention is good, the Happy Pancake House may not increase its profitability according to the manager’s evidence. (--compare to before) 4. Founded on the survey that 2 percent of customers have complained about the replacement of butter by margarine, the manager suggests 98 people of 100 are happy with the change. 5. replacement, either compliments (--compliments sounds positive) or happiness. 6. but this does not indicate >that< they like it. 7. They just do not want to waste their time or cause trouble. (--compare to before) 8. They could express their dissatisfaction in any another way, except to not come next time. (--compare to before) 9. Thus, the proportion of complaining customers may be more than two percent. (--compare to before)
I like this argument a lot! Keep it up 作者: qsx4881 时间: 2012-2-11 21:44
Luke, thankyouforyourmodification. I know you are encouraging me, but I am very pleased.作者: KnightBM 时间: 2012-2-13 00:26
感觉argue写这么多字会时间不够，我不清楚楼主的时间控制，反正内容是很丰满的，但我比较建议对论点进行精炼作者: pswpswpsw 时间: 2012-2-16 17:32
