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标题: GWD-12-12,大家帮忙看看我的思路问题出在哪里?谢谢。 [打印本页]

作者: 我爱宝宝    时间: 2004-8-16 03:39
标题: GWD-12-12,大家帮忙看看我的思路问题出在哪里?谢谢。

Q12:



For similar cars and drivers, automobile insurance for collision damage has always cost more in Greatport than in Fairmont.  olice studies, however, show that cars owned by Greatport residents are, on average, slightly less likely to be involved in a collision than cars in Fairmont.  Clearly, therefore, insurance companies are making a greater profit on collision-damage insurance in Greatport than in Fairmont.






Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?







  1. Repairing typical collision damage does not cost more in Greatport than in Fairmont.


  2. There are no more motorists in Greatport than in Fairmont.


  3. Greatport residents who have been in a collision are more likely to report it to their insurance company than Fairmont residents are.


  4. Fairmont and Greatport are the cities with the highest collision-damage insurance rates.


  5. The insurance companies were already aware of the difference in the likelihood of collisions before the publication of the police reports.

答案A,我选了C



我的思路: For similar cars and drivers, automobile insurance for collision damage has always cost more in Greatport than in Fairmont. 一个事实


Police studies, however, show that cars owned by Greatport residents are, on average, slightly less likely to be involved in a collision than cars in Fairmont. 一个原因


Clearly, therefore, insurance companies are making a greater profit on collision-damage insurance in Greatport than in Fairmont.一个结果





因果搭桥,没有C的话,原因推不出结果(等于说,把c取非,就削弱了结果)。A是关于cost,是reasoning line之外的东东.



作者: 我笨,我努力    时间: 2004-8-16 06:07

我的思路是:

G交的保险费比F多,但G出事的概率比F少,结论是:保险公司在G赚的钱比在F赚的钱多.

A他因削弱,不是因为G市的维修费用高造成保险费高的.

C无关选项,如果你再仔细理解车保险的内容的话,你就明白了,它不取非,本身就是和原文相反的削弱的选项,车主出事报告的多,那么保险公司赔的多,那在G市就赚不到钱了.  好多情况下,有些车主碰到一些小的损伤是不去向保险公司索赔的,这样保险公司就省钱了嘛.

不过这个本身是个无关选项,因为ruport和真正赔钱还是不同的.


作者: 我爱宝宝    时间: 2004-8-16 08:14
以下是引用我笨,我努力在2004-8-16 6:07:00的发言:

我的思路是:


G交的保险费比F多,但G出事的概率比F少,结论是:保险公司在G赚的钱比在F赚的钱多.


A他因削弱,不是因为G市的维修费用高造成保险费高的.


可是这题题目问的是assumption啊,mm的意思是说a是排除它因吧。

可是我认为a的排除它因是错的,因为问题中就没有cost一说。

原文意思:g的保费比f高(事实);然而g的事故发生可能性低(原因);所以保险公司在g赚的多(结果)。

c取非:g居民报告的事故少----->给出的原因“事故发生可能性低”错,削弱结论

c不取非:g居民报告事故的热情大于f-----> 给出的原因“事故发生可能性低”正确,因果搭桥

所以,c正确

这里根本没有cost的任何问题啊???

我的思路哪里出问题了,请大家帮帮忙啊!!!谢谢了。


作者: mindfree    时间: 2004-8-16 23:53

First of all, C counters what the argument is trying to prove. If C is correct, the insurance company will be justified to charge more on insurance and still would not earn a bigger profit.

C would be the correct answer if it says ...are NOT more likely...

Second, you should know that assumption is a required condition, not a sufficient condition for the argument.

One example of sufficient condition: Wang took a UA flight from Beijing to Chicago yesterday. So he is in the US now. If we say Wang did not take a UA flight, Wang might still be in the US now because he could have taken a Northwest flight.

This example help us clarify one more kind of assumption question. For example: Wang is in the US now. What is the assumption? The asnwer is not that Wang took a UA flight because that is just one sufficient condition. It does not have to be true.


作者: mindfree    时间: 2004-8-17 00:31
Also, you mentioned that repair cost is not related to insurance. They are apparantly related.
作者: 我爱宝宝    时间: 2004-8-17 01:39

感谢总教头,我一定好好弄清楚.


作者: 我爱宝宝    时间: 2004-8-17 02:15

For similar cars and drivers, automobile insurance for collision damage has always cost more in Greatport than in Fairmont.  Police studies, however, show that cars owned by Greatport residents are, on average, slightly less likely to be involved in a collision than cars in Fairmont. Clearly, therefore, insurance companies are making a greater profit on collision-damage insurance in Greatport than in Fairmont.

c:Greatport residents who have been in a collision are more likely to report it to their insurance company than Fairmont residents are.

可是我认为这是两件事情啊,原文说“涉案率”c说的“报案率”,

只有报案的热情(报案率)大家都一样高,才能说明原文“涉案率”正确啊?

反之,报案热情不高,说明原文给出的“涉案率”低是错的,才能削弱啊?

我怎么想的和总教头相反啊。我想我的问题出大了。让我再想想。


作者: 我爱宝宝    时间: 2004-8-17 02:53

我明白了,谢谢总教头耐心指导.c确实是直接weaken结论。


作者: 我笨,我努力    时间: 2004-8-17 05:59

哦,我漏说了,是应该A取非,他因削弱。

妹妹,作assumption题第一步是应该;不要取非直接看是否和原文的判断是大体一致,就是支持原文的选项,C是一下就可以排除的,因为报告越多,保险公司赔越多。

还有一点是,老人给我经验:不合常理的千万不要选,这题就是有点常理的意思。

纯属交流


作者: 我爱宝宝    时间: 2004-8-17 07:51
谢谢mm,我现在就是对逻辑头大。
作者: blackpalms    时间: 2004-8-23 09:19

what about choice b?

if use the negation test: There ARE more motorists in G than in F.

taken into consideration the "on average" in L2 and "slightly less" in L3, the negations shows: "more accidents are happening in G than in F," greatly weakening the argument.

i think, the total number of cars that involved in accidents is the essence of choice B

thanx all in advance~


作者: juningw    时间: 2005-4-8 14:36
b是无关选项
作者: qianzui    时间: 2006-7-19 21:26

(我是新人 不管帖子多老 回帖总是有意义的)

我觉得这道题的意思是这样的 :保险公司profit(P)=insurance(I)-repairing cost(C)

结论G(P)>F(P)

已知G(I)>F(I)

所以前提是G(C)<=F(C)


作者: chinaht1    时间: 2007-1-3 12:02

没错


作者: lvning    时间: 2013-5-5 10:27
这道题目不严谨,应该告诉我们保险公司还管修车这件事,要不然很容易让我们中国人多想,瞎想,ETS的逻辑就是让中国人不能多想,要尊重原文,所以此题不严谨!
作者: supermario5    时间: 2019-6-12 09:24
这道题大家主要选的就是以下三个选项,那么我就献丑稍微分析以下每个选项:
A.Repairing typical collision damage does not cost more in Greatport than in Fairmont.
B.There are no more motorists in Greatport than in Fairmont.
C.Greatport residents who have been in a collision are more likely to report it to their insurance company than Fairmont residents are.
首先要读懂题目,提取关键信息。题目说的是,G地和F地的汽车保险收费不同,G地收的高一些。而警察调查发现,G地的汽车平均碰撞率要低于F地的汽车。最后结论是保险公司的汽车碰撞损坏保险业务在G市的利润更高。读到这里恭喜你,找到了三个关键信息,一个是保险收费,一个是平均碰撞率,一个是保险业务利润。这三者是什么关系呢?
很简单:利润=收入-成本,对于保险公司来说,收入就是司机们缴纳的保险费(即保险收费),G地的保险费高说明保险公司收入高,成本是出现保险事故(碰撞损坏)后保险公司负担的汽车修理费[司机们交保险就是为了撞车时将修车费甩锅给保险公司啊喂]。G地的平均碰撞率更低,说明在投保碰撞保险的汽车总数一定的情况下,G地的保险公司要修的撞坏车辆更少,然而这并不能保证G地的保险公司平均修车费(即成本)更低,因为平均每辆车修车费(成本)=平均碰撞率*平均修理费用。所以所以需要一个关于平均修理费用的assumption来保证推出结论。[通过分析,我们在读题的过程中就已经通过这个公式预知接下来肯定要找平均修理费用相关的信息了。]
那么来看选项:
A选项说维修一次典型的碰撞需要的费用,在G地不高于F地。OK,平均修理费用出来了,G地不高于F地。同时平均碰撞率G地比F地低,那么平均修车费(成本)G<F,而保险费(收入)G>F,充分推出二者差额平均利润G>F的结论。
B选项说机动车司机数量G≤F。这首先没有提及平均修理费,所以无法计算出平均成本也就没办法计算出利润。有同学说对B取非会削弱结论,但是我们试试取非:机动车司机数量G>F,那么在G地就有更多人买保险,G地保险公司收入更高,然而结论是利润啊喂,收入和利润并没有必然联系哦,因为成本无法确定。所以取非是无法削弱结论的。
C选项说司机在撞车后将事故报告给保险公司(据此要求保险公司修车)的可能性 G>F,这就提高了G保险公司修车的可能性,也就提高了G保险公司的成本,反而削弱了结论,所以C不可能是assumption啦。
综上,B和C出局,A选项胜出。




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