20. When people predict that certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
(A) Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
(B) Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
(C) Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result using that strategy through several trials.
(D) Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.（D）
(E) Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
这题就没看懂意思，哪位NN能给讲一讲吗？先谢了！
MM 哪里不清楚? The following is my paraphrase of the passage:
"Somebody predicts that a certain action is necessary for a certain result. If when the action is taken, the result indeed occus, then this person will think that his prediction is proven. However, the author says, the result might have been caused by some other factors -- not necessarily the action."
Paraphrase of D: It's impossible to tell a correct prediction (and effective action) from an incorrect prediction (and ineffective action).
我也不懂,
题目都懂,答案也懂 就是不知道为什么这个 答案就是答案!
答案支持原文那个观点拉？？？？ 根本找不到啊
MM 哪里不清楚? The following is my paraphrase of the passage:
"Somebody predicts that a certain action is necessary for a certain result. If when the action is taken, the result indeed occus, then this person will think that his prediction is proven. However, the author says, the result might have been caused by some other factors -- not necessarily the action."
Paraphrase of D: It's impossible to tell a correct prediction (and effective action) from an incorrect prediction (and ineffective action).
谢谢robert,可是我还是不太懂，我把你说的用中文复述一下，你帮我再看看，我哪里理解错了，行吗？
有人预言说A是B的必要条件。如果有A的时候也有B，就证明这个预言是正确的，也就是说，证明了A确实是B的必要条件。但是作者认为，B有可能是别的原因引起的，不一定是A，也就是说，A不一定是B的必要条件。
我自己的分析：这道题可能是想考必要条件和充分条件的区别：有A就有B不能证明A是B的必要条件，最多只能证明A是B的充分条件。
但是选项好象和这些分析都没有关系：判断一个预言正确与否经常是不可能的。就好象是直接支持了结论，题目中说的那么些都没有关系了。
我的理解哪里出了问题呢？
这是直接支持结论型支持
1。原文：因为（when: considering that）人们预测到某个结果会发生的必要条件是某个行动被采取。所以当这个行动被采取了，也出现了这个结果，他们便认为他们的预测是对的（即：就是这个行动导致这个结果）。CLAIM：产生这个结果，常有多种可能性原因（即：不一定就是这个行动产生这个结果）
2。D：常常不可能知道这个预测是否对（即：不知是否就是该行动导致该结果），也常常不可能知道哪个是导致该结果的行动（effective action）
今天看了laywer_1的解释让我明白了很多，我自己试着总结了一下，原命题是不是可以用下面的逻辑关系来表示呢呢？
A certain result occur -> a certain action taken -> prediction correct
而结论说对于a certain result的解释不止一个，也就是说上面的推理不一定成立，原先为必要条件的反而成为了充分条件，因为有more than one interpretation。
这是我对原文的理解，不知道是否正确。
另外，我还是不明白为什么D中说到 correct 和 incorrect 呢？而不是说是其它原因也可以导致 a certain result occur 呢？感觉那样会更好些。
两个问题，请指教。
I understand D as "it is impossible to 区分correct and incorrect 的不同". But this is different with "常常不可能知道这个预测是否对".
Do I understand this sentence wrong? Can somebody help me out?
on reflection：经过考虑。
但问题是E错在哪里呢？E：“要得出正确的预测，需要全面了解与预测相关的事实”，和文中的结论：“导致一个结果，会有多个原因”不正好match吗？
NN帮忙啊！
我觉得这题的答案有问题。
选项D应该是从文中推出的结论，而不是服务于文章的条件：因为“很明显，会有多个原因导致一个结果”，所以“很难判断一个预测是否正确，一种行动是否有效”(D)；
而选项E可以作为文章的一个合适的条件：因为“要得出正确的预测，需要全面了解与预测相关的事实”(E)，所以“很明显，会发现有多个原因导致一个结果”。
请NN指正。
这道题我也选的E，不明白为什么错，请NN来讲解一下吧
我觉得选E的考友们可能没看仔细
(E) Making a successful
prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
做出成功的预测需要知道那些与预测内容有关的事实。E中并没有说：做出成功的预测必须要知道那些影响预测结果的因素。
D的意思Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible是否等于下面这两个的意思：
1.Distinguishing a correct prediction from incorrect prediction is often impossible. +
2. Distinguishing a effective action from an ineffective action is often impossible.
看完这个解释 不得不说lawyer就是牛牛啊....
D的意思Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible是否等于下面这两个的意思：
1.Distinguishing a correct prediction from incorrect prediction is often impossible. +
2. Distinguishing a effective action from an ineffective action is often impossible.
yes
我觉得选E的考友们可能没看仔细
(E) Making a successful
prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
做出成功的预测需要知道那些与预测内容有关的事实。E中并没有说：做出成功的预测必须要知道那些影响预测结果的因素。
不理解. E哪里错了?
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