45.The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it will remain so. In the United States this year, the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has increased, even though the number of adults who smoke has decreased.
Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT:
(A) During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking.
(B) The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period.
(C) During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking.
(D) The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past.
(E) More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year.
答案是A。
OG解释是假如戒烟的女人和开始抽烟的男人一样多的话，A将导致销量的增长。我想不明白的是B好像也可以这样推理，为什么B不对呢？
谢谢！
对，the number of adults who smoke has decreased 是 PREMISE，明白啦。
谢谢！
45. The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it will remain so. In the
Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT:
A. During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking
B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period
C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking
D. The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past
E. More of the cigarettes made in the
解释：
If the number of men beginning to smoke and the number of women quitting smoking during the year are equal, A would result in an increase, not a decrease, in the number of adults who smoke. Hence, A does NOT explain the facts cited and is the best answer.
关于这题ETS给出的解释，我还有两点疑问，希望大家帮忙解释解释~
ETS解释说A是正确的因为他不支持原句中的结论the number of adults who smoke has decreased.。因为如果开始吸烟的男人和戒烟的女人的数量一样多的话，那么吸烟的成人总数是不变的！可是这只是他们的一个假设啊！那我也可以做这样的假设。如果开始吸烟的女人比戒烟的男人要多，但是这一年戒烟的女人比开始吸烟的女人要多。那么吸烟的成年人总数还是下降的啊！！我觉得ETS用一个假设来说明这个选项没有解释句子中的结论有点牵强！因为吸烟的成人，包括吸烟和戒烟的男人，还有吸烟和戒烟的女人啊！
另外，C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking 如果nonsmoker开始吸烟的人数比戒烟的人多，这其中包括成年人，未成年人，男人和女人。我们再来做一个假设，如果这些刚刚加入吸烟行列的nonsmoker都是成年人的话，那整体的成年吸烟的人的数量不是应该增长吗？他怎么解释了成年吸烟人数下降这个结论？
做过这道题的xdjm们，进来讨论讨论吧！我可是很迷惑啊！
我也迷惑。为什么没有NN 来帮忙解释呢？？
越看越觉得糊涂
OG能解释A FAIL TO EXPLAIN, 同样方法为什么不能解释B呢？B中只说 TEEN-AGE 开始吸烟的人多余 ADULT QUIT 的人，可是若 TEEN-AGE QUIT的人数大于 开始吸烟的人，那么总的吸烟人数还是减少了。就不能解释了。
？？
我也迷惑。为什么没有NN 来帮忙解释呢？？
越看越觉得糊涂
OG能解释A FAIL TO EXPLAIN, 同样方法为什么不能解释B呢？B中只说 TEEN-AGE 开始吸烟的人多余 ADULT QUIT 的人，可是若 TEEN-AGE QUIT的人数大于 开始吸烟的人，那么总的吸烟人数还是减少了。就不能解释了。
？？
If the number of women beginning to smoke and the number of men quitting smoking during the year are equal, A would result in an increase, not a decrease, in the number of adults who smoke. Hence, A does NOT explain the facts cited and is the best answer. ”那么可以理解为即使开始吸烟的女性和戒烟的男性的数量相等的话，吸烟成年人的数量也会保持不变；何况A是说今年开始吸烟的女性人数比戒烟的男性人数多，那就导致吸烟成年人数量增加，而不是下降，所以A不能解释文中的事实。
我只能这样理解ETS的解释，否则，ETS就是放火的州官。
这道题目我也想了很久，我和4楼还有楼上一样，觉得选项A通过不能得到抽烟人数减少这个事实，得到它不能说明抽烟人数减少和烟草消费量上升的关系这个理由太牵强。抽烟人数减少只是原文的前提，又不是结果。原文的结果是烟草消费量上升，他应该通过说明“抽烟人数减少”不能得到“烟草消费量增加”这样的推理过程得到正确答案吧。
但是，如果一定要用A作为正确答案，我只能用以下的思路去理解：
答案A说：今年开始吸烟的女性(a)比开始戒烟的男性(b)多。
下面的解释说：如果今年开始吸烟的男性(c)和开始戒烟的女性(d)一样多，那么吸烟的总人数就会增加。
全年增加的吸烟成人人数 = (a) + (c)
全年减少的吸烟成人人数= (b) + (d)
因为 a > b & c = d， 所以 全年吸烟的成人数增加。
那么我可以认为因为它和“抽烟人数减少和烟草消费量上升”无关，所以不能说明两者关系，所以是正确答案。
还是觉得很牵强啊！
只好这样理解了
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