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标题: PREP1-Q25~期待NN~ [打印本页]

作者: evelyn205205 时间: 2011-7-24 10:17
标题: PREP1-Q25~期待NN~
Twelve years ago and again five years ago, there were extended periods when the DarfirRepublic's currency, the pundra, was weak: its value was unusually low relative to the world's most stable currencies.Both times a weak pundra made Darfir's manufactured products a bargain on world markets, and Darfir's exports were up substantially.Now some politicians are saying that, in order to cause another similarly sized increase in exports, the government should allow the pundra to become weak again.

Which of the following, if true, provides the government with the strongest grounds to doubt that the politicians' recommendation, if followed, will achieve its aim?

(A) Several of the politicians now recommending that the pundra be allowed to become weak made that same recommendation before each of the last two periods of currency weakness.

(B) After several decades of operating well below peak capacity, Darfir's manufacturing sector is now operating at near-peak levels.

(C) The economy of a country experiencing a rise in exports will become healthier only if the country's currency is strong or the rise in exports is significant.

(D) Those countries whose manufactured products compete with Darfir's on the world market all currently have stable currencies.

(E) A sharp improvement in the efficiency of Darfir's manufacturing plants would make Darfir's products a bargain on world markets even without any weakening of the pundra relative to other currencies.

答案是B。
为什么E不能weaken原文的argumentation呢？
先谢谢各位NN啦~

作者: evelyn205205 时间: 2011-7-24 11:01
求解中，盼一盼NN！

作者: evelyn205205 时间: 2011-7-24 14:00
自己顶一下~

作者: evelyn205205 时间: 2011-7-24 15:20
NN们，你们在哪里？

作者: evelyn205205 时间: 2011-7-24 19:41
NN们啊，evelyn向你们求助啊~

作者: evelyn205205 时间: 2011-7-24 20:16
盼一盼NN

作者: evelyn205205 时间: 2011-7-24 21:48
还是没有人么？

作者: 尼采的羽毛笔 时间: 2011-7-24 22:25
原文逻辑链是这样的a weak pundra 导致export是上升
(B) After several decades of operating well below peak capacity, Darfir's manufacturing sector is now operating at near-peak levels.

因为manufacturing已经 peak level无法再生产也就没有办法再exports 了
所以是有因无果的一种削弱

作者: evelyn205205 时间: 2011-7-25 10:56

原文逻辑链是这样的a weak pundra 导致export是上升
(B) After several decades of operating well below peak capacity, Darfir's manufacturing sector is now operating at near-peak levels.

因为manufacturing已经 peak level无法再生产也就没有办法再exports 了
所以是有因无果的一种削弱

-- by 会员尼采的羽毛笔 (2011/7/24 22:25:30)

恩，谢谢你，尼采~

作者: qsea 时间: 2011-10-23 15:27

-- by 会员尼采的羽毛笔 (2011/7/24 22:25:30)

羽毛笔的解释应该就是官方的观点。但是个人觉得这题中B的削弱还不到位，因为operation已经reach peak capacity只能说明总产出不能增加，但是内销和出口的比例还是可调的。在没有假定内销出口比例不变的前提下，B的这种情况并不一定就导致有因无果。（说不定更多厂商在这刺激下内销转外销了）。我个人是选的E，因为觉得E选项是列举他因。而打破了“货币贬值是造成出口增加”的必然条件。

作者: evelyn205205 时间: 2011-11-27 22:41

-- by 会员尼采的羽毛笔 (2011/7/24 22:25:30)

-- by 会员 qsea (2011/10/23 15:27:02)

此题我刚刚时隔半年看，也发觉还是E正确，
希望NN来讨论~

作者: xbhl08 时间: 2011-11-28 04:22
politicians 依据的前提是a weak pundra made Darfir's manufactured products a bargain on world markets, and Darfir's exports were up substantially.
Weaken 题目正确选项从来不会攻击前提，前提都是默认为真的。因此在寻找正确答案时，一定要找可以攻击到推理链的，不要找直接攻击前提的。
我认为E选项直接攻击了前提，即存在其他条件使得即使pundra不贬值Darfir的出口仍能获得成功。
而选项B直接攻击了推理链。即使pundra贬值可以使得出口获得成功，但是制造业产能已近顶点，使得结论的可能性减低。

作者: moderatto 时间: 2011-11-28 11:27
逻辑图：过去贬货币促进出口→当今贬货币可以促出口。
攻击削弱的应为今昔之异，先决条件是今天其他所有条件不变，可以套用旧的模式。
然而B选项说过去生产是未达顶峰，贬货币后还有提高生产力的空间，而如今生产已达顶峰，即使贬货币也没有可能增加出口。至于E选项说如今效率提高，即使不贬值也有很大竞争力，那么反过来说，要是贬值了不是更加促进出口嘛？

非N求拍。

作者: kodamon 时间: 2013-3-5 11:40
politicians说，要增加出口，应该降低pundra；题目问的是如果怎么样，这个建议无法达到增加出口的目的；意思就是补充一个条件使得——降低pundra达不到增加export；这样你把E带进去是不是答非所问，人家让你说“这个方法不行”，你告诉人家“我不需要用这个方法就可以”。

作者: 吉曼特托夫 时间: 2014-8-26 09:55

xbhl08 发表于 2011-11-28 04:22
politicians 依据的前提是a weak pundra made Darfir's manufactured products a bargain on world markets ...

这个解释给力！

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