标题: 虚心请教，求评点我的一篇AA [打印本页] 作者: from0 时间: 2010-12-2 21:09 标题: 虚心请教，求评点我的一篇AA The following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.
“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over other local stores.”
The author in this argument reachs the conclusion that the increased sales is due to the pharmacy sectoion, and the metod of increase the profits over the next few years is add a clouthing department and a automotive supplies and repair shop. To supprot this conclusion, the author stated that the customer’s major concern is the conveniecne affored by the shop. At the first, the author’s conclusion appears somewhat convincing. However, I believe these assumptions and conclusions are highly dubious. Because the author commits several logical mistakes which are adressed below.
The first logical mistakes is that the author unfaily assumes that the the increased sales is caused by the additional pharmacy section, the former events is responsible for the latter one. Apparently, the author uses the positive correlation betweent pharamacy section and the increased sales to establish the causality. However, it is not the case. The pharmacy and the increased sales might not prove the causal relationship. For example, the growing poplulation in this area and the low price can also contribute to the increased profits. Another possiblity is that maybe the increased sales is caused by the increasing payment of local people. Unless these and other possible factors are ruled out, the stand point that the increased sales is caused by the additional pharmacy is compeletely unwarranted.
Secondly, even if the increased sales is caused by the pharmacy section, the author can not guarrantee that add a clothing department and an automative supplies along with repair shop is the surest way to increase its increase over the next couple of years. This conclusion is oversimplication. If this area has enough clothing sotres and repair shop, to provide same survice can result it a oversupply. And this condition will bring nagtive effect to cost-effect and has no help in the development of this store.
Since the author commits the above-mentioned logical mistakes and fail to consider the whole situation comprehensively, the autho’s idea does not constitute a logical argument in favor of the recommedation. To better bolster the argument, the author shoul provide more detailed information such as is there any other possible factors has the inffluenced on the increased sales , so the author can establish a solid conclusion.