[求助]feifei-97：有关充要条件的疑问。非常困惑…… - ChaseDream

97. A scientific theory is a good theory if it satisfies two requirements: it must accurately describe a large class of observations in terms of a model that is simple enough to contain only a few elements, and it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations. For example, Aristotle’s cosmological theory, which claimed that everything was made out of four elements---earth, air, fire, and water---satisfied the first requirement, but it did not make any definite predictions. Thus, Aristotle’s cosmological theory was not a good theory.

If all the statements in the passage are true, each of the following must also be true EXCEPT:

A. Prediction about the results of future observations must be made by any good scientific theory

B. Observation of physical phenomena was not a major concern in Aristotle’s cosmological theory.

C. For elements can be the basis of a scientific model that is simple enough to meet the simplicity criterion of a good theory.

E. Aristotle’s cosmological theory described a large class of observations in terms of only four elements.

1> it must accurately describe a large class of observations in terms of a model that is simple enough to contain only a few elements and 2> it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations.ßà A scientific theory is a good theory

B is not mentioned in this argument , so we can conclude whether B is also true.

根据原题第一句话：如果科学理论是个好理论，那它满足两个条件：其中第二条：it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations。对选项A有疑问：1.题目说是definite predictions，A是 predictions，这能等同吗？2.也是最疑惑的，满足两个要求是好理论，也就是说好理论能够有明确的推断。A中说推断来自好理论？这个推理过程有问题吧。Prediction about the results of future observations must be made by any good scientific theory 这句话该怎么理解？

或者也可以这么理解？如果要把prediction分成两种一种是definite一种不definite，那不definite的还叫prediction么？比如我说明天既有可能下雨也可能不下雨，这还叫预测么？如果从这个角度来理解，prediction一定就是definite的，所以可以视为等同

再有觉得A有问题也可能是因为我们常识的影响，我们觉得破理论也能做出预测，只不过一般不准罢了，我的建议是做逻辑题的时候紧盯着题目给的信息，其他常识就暂时忘掉，死跟着题目给的逻辑，题目说是什么，就是什么，为了得分唉唉唉……那么，如果要忘记常识只看题的话，题目中说了，亚里士多德的理论没有预测，所以不是好理论，那么没有预测的一定不是好理论，所以只有好理论才有可能有预测，那么就能推出预测都是来自好理论的（再次强调，忘记常识）

先谢ls。definite不是问题的关键。 a good theory -〉it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations。可是A中说什么？Prediction about the results of future observations must be made by any good scientific theory ，这个推理好像是错误的吧？

我觉得这个也是咱们英语非母语的原因了吧，如果加个definite在前面肯定就不会选A了呵呵，至于有和没有definite是否等同的问题我其实也和你同样抱怀疑观点，这个地方确实有质疑
或者也可以这么理解？如果要把prediction分成两种一种是definite一种不definite，那不definite的还叫prediction么？比如我说明天既有可能下雨也可能不下雨，这还叫预测么？如果从这个角度来理解，prediction一定就是definite的，所以可以视为等同
再有觉得A有问题也可能是因为我们常识的影响，我们觉得破理论也能做出预测，只不过一般不准罢了，我的建议是做逻辑题的时候紧盯着题目给的信息，其他常识就暂时忘掉，死跟着题目给的逻辑，题目说是什么，就是什么，为了得分唉唉唉……那么，如果要忘记常识只看题的话，题目中说了，亚里士多德的理论没有预测，所以不是好理论，那么没有预测的一定不是好理论，所以只有好理论才有可能有预测，那么就能推出预测都是来自好理论的（再次强调，忘记常识）
其实说这么多我感觉简直太啰嗦了，在考场上我觉得看到B基本上一定会选B，因为A虽然有质疑，但是B相对来说更明显的不对。anyway，希望你同意我的观点~

-- by 会员 LittleMike (2009/10/4 14:58:00)

copy我之前发的：
那么，如果要忘记常识只看题的话，题目中说了，亚里士多德的理论没有预测，所以不是好理论，那么没有预测的一定不是好理论，所以只有好理论才有可能有预测，那么就能推出预测都是来自好理论的

-- by 会员 LittleMike (2009/10/4 18:04:00)