The following appeared in a newspaper story giving advice about investments:
“As overall life expectancy continues to rise, the population of our country is growing increasingly older. For example,
more than 20 percent of the residents of one of our more populated regions are now at least 65 years old, and
occupancy rates at resort hotels in that region declined significantly during the past six months. Because of these two
related trends, a prudent investor would be well advised to sell interest in hotels and invest in hospitals and nursing
homes instead.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
1. Cause and effect: the author assumes that the decline of occupancy rates at resort hotels is an indicative sign of the fact that the population is growing older. Other possible reasons: the past six month is the low season of tourism; the country is facing an economic recession.
2. Misapplied generalization: The author unfairly assumes that the unnamed region adequately reflects the entire country. If it turns out, for example, that the region cited is
3. All things are equal: historical circumstances indicate nothing about the situation in times to come. It is entirely possible that a baby boom period is on the way; government policies encouraging tourism will be announced.
thanks,还有一题，麻烦帮看下
1。某市因为工业污染严重，来这里旅游的旅客减少了很多，政府的收入相应地减少。而最近在该市一些公园发现有矿产资源，所以作者提议让一些企业能在这些公园里开采矿，这样这些企业就能赚钱并愿意支付税，这样政府就能增加税收收入
1. One-sidedness:在公园附近开采,污染更严重导致旅游人数更少，降低税收收入（旅客的税收交的可能比开采企业多）
2. Assumption:在公园里开采不一定就赚钱，也许公园矿产资源很少，而开采成本很大，亏钱
3. 即使承认赚钱，企业也不一定会付税，因为文中提到愿意支付税费，说明不是强制性的，企业以利润最大化为目的，可能想方设法不付税。
The following appeared in a newspaper story giving advice about investments:
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc. Some assumptions given by the speaker are logically flawed and problematic. 1. As a factional part of 20% of total population are elder people occupied in the statistics. However, we can not be confirmed that can be fully representative to represent the entire customer group who would eschew using resort hotel since they are getting older if that is the case. Based on our observation, we are often exposed that elder people visiting sanatorium place or resort hotel to pursue health healing . Take further step, we can deem that other 80% of the population can be the target customers , if this is the case, the occupancy rate of resort hotel will not be disturbed if the elder customer stop coming. As nowdays, the business is often runing out of border beyond regional residential area. That articulate that the resort hotel is open to a large custmers potentially from other regions and even foreign countries. regonal geographic border, 2.Lack of evidence given we are not told that the rising older people population served as a direct causal effect to cause the occupancy rate of resort hotel decline. Even though the elder people' life expentancy continuously rise and elder population increase, however ,dose not necessarily associate that they are spend more time patronizing hospital rather than using resort hotel instead, they might trave abroad or healthily like indoor activities at home .We are not supplied that the foreseeable reason that investing hospitcal can be the wise choise to substitude the resort hotel. Since we are not told that the whether the occupancy rate in the resort hotel is refered to the summer or winter time. As our common sense tells us that the seasonal impact can be dramatically tumbled the hotel business revenue if this statistic data intercepted from winter time whereas the goden time business should be occured in summer. This is for your reference. Good luck with your coming GMAT exam ! Same as you, I am going to take my 2nd GMAT in 23rd, April. Next week.
Data lacks of authority and representativeness
Some assumptions given by the speaker are logically flawed and problematic.
1.
Data lacks of authority and representativeness
As a factional part of 20% of total population are elder people occupied in the statistics. However, we can not be confirmed that can be fully representative to represent the entire customer group who would eschew using resort hotel since they are getting older if that is the case. Based on our observation, we are often exposed that elder people visiting sanatorium place or resort hotel to pursue health healing . Take further step, we can deem that other 80% of the population can be the target customers , if this is the case, the occupancy rate of resort hotel will not be disturbed if the elder customer stop coming. As nowdays, the business is often runing out of border beyond regional residential area. That articulate that the resort hotel is open to a large custmers potentially from other regions and even foreign countries.
regonal geographic border,
2.Lack of evidence given
we are not told that the rising older people population served as a direct causal effect to cause the occupancy rate of resort hotel decline. Even though the elder people' life expentancy continuously rise and elder population increase, however ,dose not necessarily associate that they are spend more time patronizing hospital rather than using resort hotel instead, they might trave abroad or healthily like indoor activities at home .We are not supplied that the foreseeable reason that investing hospitcal can be the wise choise to substitude the resort hotel.
Since we are not told that the whether the occupancy rate in the resort hotel is refered to the summer or winter time. As our common sense tells us that the seasonal impact can be dramatically tumbled the hotel business revenue if this statistic data intercepted from winter time whereas the goden time business should be occured in summer.
This is for your reference.
Good luck with your coming GMAT exam ! Same as you, I am going to take my 2nd GMAT in 23rd, April. Next week.
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