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标题: 人民币远期汇价大幅升4.7％ [打印本页]

作者: baobaobear 时间: 2004-2-12 14:21
标题: 人民币远期汇价大幅升4.7％
近来，关于中国政府将让人民币于今年开始稳步升值的消息已经满天飞了，（年内预计升值5％，到1：7.8，明年预计扩大升值到20％，预计到1：6）。不过下面这个报道才正是显示境内市场的反应了。

人民币远期汇价大幅升4.7％
尽管央行周一否认了下个月人民币重估的报道，但大量热钱仍然流入炒买人民币升值。本周以来，人民币远期汇价大幅飙升4．7％。
　　《财经时报》上周六称，央行可能在下个月重估人民币币值，并在年底前采取让人民币汇率盯住一篮子货币的做法。该报道还称，中国可能在2005 年底前允许人民币向上或向下浮动5％。这意味着人民币很可能将升值5％，即由现时的8．277 元人民币兑1美元上调至7．887 元。
　　央行周一否认了该报道，国家外汇管理局的发言人也否认近期在汇率问题上有任何行动计划。尽管如此，大量热钱仍然流入炒买人民币升值。
　　周一收市时，人民币一年期无交割合约（NDF）汇价大幅飙升，折让－4050／－3750 点、较上周五收市扩大300点，即一年后的汇价相当于7．8723／7．9023 元，较现钞价升值4．89％／4．53％。港元同样有资金流入，一年期港元合约报－660／－640 点、较上周五折让价扩大50点。按此计算，一年期港元相当于7．703／7．705 ，较联系汇率（7．80 ）偏离1．24％／1．22％。
　　昨天的人民币NDF延续了周一的高位。对此，华泰财险的高级分析师尹海表示，NDF作为参考价，反映了市场的看法。不过，他同时指出，折让的4000 多点中，利息因素占了约1000 点，真正反映升值预期因素大约有3000 点。
　　去年9月的迪拜G7会议后，西方各国加大要求人民币升值的压力，NDF的折让一度达到6000 多点，即如果一年后这个NDF实现，那么美元兑人民币会在7．67 左右。在采取降低出口退税等一系列措施后，目前NDF已经回落到4000 点以下。
　　央行否认汇率调整，人民币远期汇价仍涨。

MY TIPs：如果关心国内股市汇市的朋友，应该早为这个消息蠢蠢欲动了吧。在国外的朋友可以考虑将闲置的美元（如为明年上学预留的钱）汇入国内的亲朋，让其转为人民币资产，明年转回，可以起到套期保值的作用。如果具有短线风险偏好的人，还可以将人民币投入国内A股（H股有点太疯了），短期（两会前后）应有一定涨幅，如果人民币升值的计划（如盯住一揽子货币）正式实施，国内股市还会有不错涨幅。搞得好，就不仅仅是保值，明年的生活费和回国探亲费都挣出来了。

（其实目前国外的资金正是这么干的。美国还批评中国外汇储备剧增，其实都是他们的热钱大量流入，道理就是这么简单）

作者: greattaste 时间: 2004-2-12 17:56
Hi bear bro,

我也读到相关报道但前几天政府已经出来间接否认人民币升值的消息，温家宝也强调了汇率稳定问题。个人认为人民币汇率调整至少不会在近期，年底之前有可能。

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-2-12 17:59:31编辑过]

作者: 笨小孩 时间: 2004-2-12 19:07

以下是引用greattaste在2004-2-12 17:56:00的发言：
Hi bear bro,

我也读到相关报道但前几天政府已经出来间接否认人民币升值的消息，温家宝也强调了汇率稳定问题。个人认为人民币汇率调整至少不会在近期，年底之前有可能。

同意。

作者: Emilydong 时间: 2004-2-12 22:45
1。现货市场和期货市场同向变动，都是反映现时的预期；

2。其次所以期货市场反应未来现货市场也是建立在市场有效的假设上，中国是一个行政干预的市场，看这些没有用的，倒是不如研究一些政治因素，往往倒是可以影响汇率。

不过我希望那个人民币升值，最好1：1，呵呵

作者: baobaobear 时间: 2004-2-13 11:01

以下是引用Emilydong在2004-2-12 22:45:00的发言：
1。现货市场和期货市场同向变动，都是反映现时的预期；

2。其次所以期货市场反应未来现货市场也是建立在市场有效的假设上，中国是一个行政干预的市场，看这些没有用的，倒是不如研究一些政治因素，往往倒是可以影响汇率。

不过我希望那个人民币升值，最好1：1，呵呵

的确，其实这些反应更多的是显示市场的预期。不过，国家领导人的话说得还是很中性的。毕竟升值的弊端并不像以前那么大了。

作者: greattaste 时间: 2004-2-13 14:54
An article from Finantial Times.

China has agreed to receive a delegation of US Treasury officials within weeks to discuss how Beijing might inject flexibility into its rigid exchange rate system. The meeting comes as speculation over the future of the Chinese currency, the renminbi, intensifies.

The visit does not signify that Beijing is preparing an imminent adjustment of the effective currency peg by which the renminbi has been held at 8.28 to the US dollar for years. But it does mean the People's Bank of China (PBoC), the central bank, feels the need to take technical advice on how its exchange mechanism could be made more flexible, officials say.

The consultation, if it goes ahead as planned, will also mark the implementation of promises that Beijing made to John Snow, US Treasury secretary, last year. Foreign diplomats said that, as well as receiving advice, the Chinese side might use the meeting to explain the risks and complexities of any shift in exchange rate policy.

Speculation within and beyond China over the future of the renminbi has intensified this week following a report in the China Business Post, a semi-official newspaper, that the PBoC was preparing to allow a 5 per cent appreciation in the renminbi's value against the US dollar.

This was strenuously denied by the PBoC but comment on the advantages of an appreciation has emerged in the official press this week, with academics arguing that a stronger currency would cheapen the bill China pays for its voracious imports of raw materials and fuel. The PBoC has said for several months that it plans to "perfect its exchange rate mechanism" and "keep the renminbi basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level". Analysts interpret these words as meaning that the central bank will - one day - allow the currency to fluctuate in a wider band, reflecting market forces more than it does.

There has not been an obvious increase recently in economic pressures on the PBoC to act. After problems "sterilising" the impact of US dollar inflows in December, the PBoC has regained its poise and open market operations are progressing smoothly, officials say.

Trade flows suggest that pressure for a revaluation of the renminbi may be diminishing. Beijing announced this week its first trade deficit for 10 months in January, posting a shortfall of $20m (?5.6m, £10.5m). This figure is regarded as too much affected by one-off factors to be indicative of any trend, economists say.

Internationally, pressure on China to drop the renminbi's peg to the US dollar appears to have grown. The G7 group of industrialised nations called on "major countries or economic areas" that lack exchange rate flexibility to "promote smooth and widespread adjustments . . . based on market mechanisms".

"We are happy with the exchange rate as it is," said one Chinese financial official. "We see no economic reason to change it."

Zhou Xiaochuan, central bank governor, said China would try to keep the growth in money supply to 17 per cent this year, down from 19.8 per cent during 2003. This would be matched by slowing loan growth this year, said Wen Jiabao, premier.

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-2-13 14:56:31编辑过]

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